Probability
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SAT Math › Probability
A fair coin is flipped 3 times. What is the probability of getting exactly two heads?
$\frac{5}{8}$
$\frac{1}{2}$
$\frac{3}{8}$
$\frac{1}{8}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability of getting exactly two heads in three coin flips. The possible ways to get exactly two heads are: HHT, HTH, and THH. Each specific sequence has probability (1/2)³ = 1/8, and there are 3 such sequences. Therefore, P(exactly 2 heads) = 3 × (1/8) = 3/8. This is a binomial probability problem with n=3, k=2, and p=1/2. The key is counting all possible arrangements of 2 heads and 1 tail.
A spinner has 8 equal sections numbered 1 through 8. The spinner is spun once. What is the probability of landing on a number that is a multiple of 3 or a number greater than 6?
$\frac{1}{4}$
$\frac{3}{8}$
$\frac{5}{8}$
$\frac{1}{2}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability of landing on a multiple of 3 OR a number greater than 6 on a spinner numbered 1-8. Multiples of 3 are {3, 6} and numbers greater than 6 are {7, 8}, with no overlap between these sets. Therefore, P(multiple of 3 or >6) = P(multiple of 3) + P(>6) = 2/8 + 2/8 = 4/8 = 1/2. Since there's no overlap, we don't need to subtract anything. The key is carefully identifying all favorable outcomes: 3, 6, 7, and 8.
A bag contains 8 black tiles and 2 white tiles. One tile is drawn at random, replaced, and then a second tile is drawn. What is the probability that exactly one of the two tiles drawn is white?
$\frac{4}{25}$
$\frac{9}{25}$
$\frac{1}{25}$
$\frac{8}{25}$
Explanation
This problem involves drawing tiles with replacement, asking for the probability of getting exactly one white tile in two draws from a bag with 8 black and 2 white tiles. There are two ways this can happen: white then black, or black then white. P(white then black) = (2/10) × (8/10) = 16/100, and P(black then white) = (8/10) × (2/10) = 16/100. The total probability is 16/100 + 16/100 = 32/100 = 8/25. The key insight is that with replacement, each draw has the same probabilities, and we must consider both orderings.
A standard six-sided die is rolled once. What is the probability of rolling an even number or a number greater than 4?
$\frac{5}{6}$
$\frac{1}{3}$
$\frac{1}{2}$
$\frac{2}{3}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability of rolling an even number OR a number greater than 4 on a standard six-sided die. The even numbers are {2, 4, 6} and numbers greater than 4 are {5, 6}, with 6 appearing in both sets. Using P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B), we get P(even) = 3/6, P(>4) = 2/6, and P(even and >4) = 1/6 (only the 6). Therefore, P(even or >4) = 3/6 + 2/6 - 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3. The key is recognizing that 6 satisfies both conditions and must not be double-counted.
A jar contains 6 red marbles, 5 blue marbles, and 4 green marbles. Two marbles are drawn at random without replacement. What is the probability that both marbles drawn are blue?
$\frac{2}{21}$
$\frac{25}{225}$
$\frac{5}{15}$
$\frac{1}{7}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability of drawing two blue marbles without replacement from a jar containing 6 red, 5 blue, and 4 green marbles (15 total). For the first draw, P(blue) = 5/15 = 1/3. After removing one blue marble, there are 4 blue marbles left out of 14 total marbles, so P(second blue | first blue) = 4/14 = 2/7. The probability of both events is (5/15) × (4/14) = (1/3) × (2/7) = 2/21. A common mistake is treating this as replacement, which would give (5/15)² = 25/225. When drawing without replacement, always adjust both the numerator and denominator for the second draw.
A multiple-choice question has 5 answer choices, only one of which is correct. A student guesses randomly on 4 such independent questions. What is the probability the student answers all 4 questions incorrectly?
$\frac{256}{625}$
$\frac{1}{625}$
$\frac{16}{625}$
$\frac{81}{125}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability of answering all 4 multiple-choice questions incorrectly when guessing randomly. Each question has 5 choices with 1 correct answer, so P(incorrect) = 4/5 for each question. Since the questions are independent, P(all 4 incorrect) = (4/5)⁴ = 256/625. This matches answer C. A common error would be calculating (1/5)⁴ = 1/625, which is the probability of getting all 4 correct. When dealing with independent events, multiply the individual probabilities.
A bag contains 4 red balls and 6 yellow balls. Two balls are drawn at random without replacement. What is the probability that the two balls are different colors?
$\frac{1}{3}$
$\frac{4}{9}$
$\frac{8}{15}$
$\frac{2}{5}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability of drawing two balls of different colors without replacement from 4 red and 6 yellow balls. There are two ways: red then yellow, or yellow then red. P(red then yellow) = (4/10) × (6/9) = 24/90, and P(yellow then red) = (6/10) × (4/9) = 24/90. Total probability = 24/90 + 24/90 = 48/90 = 8/15. The key insight is considering both orderings and adjusting the denominator for the second draw without replacement.
A jar contains 5 lemon candies and 7 cherry candies. Two candies are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that both candies are cherry?
$\tfrac{7}{12}$
$\tfrac{7}{12}\cdot\tfrac{6}{11}$
$\tfrac{7}{12}\cdot\tfrac{7}{12}$
$\tfrac{49}{144}$
Explanation
This question involves drawing two candies without replacement, asking for the probability that both are cherry. The jar has 5 lemon + 7 cherry = 12 total candies. For the first draw, P(cherry) = 7/12. After removing one cherry candy, there are 6 cherry candies left out of 11 total, so P(second cherry|first cherry) = 6/11. Therefore, P(both cherry) = 7/12 × 6/11. The key distinction is "without replacement," which means the second probability changes based on the first outcome. A common error is using 7/12 × 7/12, which would only be correct for drawing with replacement.
A card is drawn at random from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability that the card is a heart and a face card (jack, queen, or king)?
$\tfrac{3}{52}$
$\tfrac{3}{13}$
$\tfrac{12}{52}$
$\tfrac{13}{52}$
Explanation
This question asks for the probability of drawing a card that is both a heart AND a face card from a standard 52-card deck. A standard deck has 13 hearts and 12 face cards total (3 per suit: J, Q, K), but we need cards that satisfy both conditions. The heart suit contains exactly 3 face cards: jack of hearts, queen of hearts, and king of hearts. Therefore, P(heart AND face card) = 3/52. A common error is multiplying P(heart) × P(face card) = 13/52 × 12/52, which assumes independence and gives the wrong answer. For AND probabilities, count only the outcomes that satisfy both conditions simultaneously.
A bag contains 6 red marbles, 4 blue marbles, and 5 green marbles. One marble is drawn at random. What is the probability that the marble is not blue?
$\tfrac{11}{15}$
$\tfrac{4}{15}$
$\tfrac{1}{4}$
$\tfrac{15}{11}$
Explanation
This question asks for the probability of NOT drawing a blue marble from a bag. The bag contains 6 red + 4 blue + 5 green = 15 total marbles, and we want any color except blue. The favorable outcomes are red or green marbles: 6 + 5 = 11 marbles. Therefore, P(not blue) = 11/15. A common mistake is calculating P(blue) = 4/15 but forgetting to subtract from 1, or miscounting the total marbles. When dealing with "not" probabilities, you can either count favorable outcomes directly or use the complement rule: P(not blue) = 1 - P(blue) = 1 - 4/15 = 11/15.