Using Probability to Make Fair Decisions

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1

Three students—Eli, Fatima, and Gio—volunteer to be class messenger, but only one can be chosen. The class wants a fair method, meaning each student has probability $1/3$ of being selected. Which method gives each student an equal chance?

Pick whoever raised their hand first.

Roll a fair 6-sided die: 1–2 = Eli, 3–4 = Fatima, 5–6 = Gio.

Flip a fair coin: heads = Eli, tails = choose between Fatima and Gio by rolling a die (1–3 = Fatima, 4–6 = Gio).

Draw a card from a standard deck: hearts = Eli, diamonds = Fatima, clubs or spades = Gio.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the three students has an equal probability of 1/3 of being selected as messenger. In the correct method, choice B, a fair 6-sided die is rolled, with two numbers for each student, so each corresponds to two out of six equally likely outcomes. This assigns equal chances because the die is fair, making each grouping equally probable. One incorrect method, choice A, introduces bias by giving Eli a 1/2 probability from the coin and then splitting the rest unequally with the die. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

2

Three teams—Lions, Tigers, and Bears—are tied and need a fair tiebreaker to decide who gets home-field advantage. Fair means each team has probability $1/3$ of being chosen. Which method gives each team an equal chance?

Choose the team that scored the most points earlier in the season.

Spin a spinner with 3 labeled sections, but one section is twice as large as each of the other two.

Flip a coin: heads = Lions, tails = spin a coin again to choose between Tigers and Bears (heads = Tigers, tails = Bears).

Roll a fair 6-sided die: 1–2 = Lions, 3–4 = Tigers, 5–6 = Bears.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the three teams has an equal probability of 1/3 of getting home-field advantage. In the correct method, choice A, a fair 6-sided die is rolled, with two numbers assigned to each team, so each team corresponds to two out of six equally likely outcomes. This assigns equal chances because the die is fair, making each number equally probable and thus each team equally likely. One incorrect method, choice B, introduces bias by having one spinner section twice as large, leading to unequal probabilities for the teams. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

3

Six students—A, B, C, D, E, and F—are all qualified to lead a lab group, and the teacher wants a fair selection. Fair means each student has probability $1/6$ of being chosen. Which method is fair?

Use a spinner with 6 equal sections labeled A–F, and spin once.

Choose the student who sits closest to the door so it’s easy for them to leave the room.

Flip a coin: heads = pick from A, B, C (teacher chooses), tails = pick from D, E, F (teacher chooses).

Roll a fair 6-sided die twice and add: 2=A, 3=B, 4=C, 5=D, 6=E, 7=F (re-roll if you get 8–12).

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the six students has an equal probability of 1/6 of being chosen to lead. In the correct method, choice A, a spinner with six equal sections labeled A through F is spun once, creating six equally likely landing spots. This assigns equal chances because the sections are equal, making each outcome equally probable. One incorrect method, choice B, introduces bias by using dice sums that are not equally likely and re-rolling higher sums, leading to unequal probabilities like 1/21 for A and 6/21 for F. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

4

Four classmates—Hana, Idris, Jun, and Lila—need a fair way to decide who will clean up after a science demo. Fair means each classmate has probability $1/4$ of being chosen. Which procedure is fair?

Roll two fair dice: if the sum is 2–4 choose Hana, 5–7 choose Idris, 8–10 choose Jun, 11–12 choose Lila.

Put 4 identical slips with the names in a hat and draw 1 slip without looking.

Spin a 4-section spinner, but if it lands on Hana you spin again because Hana cleaned up yesterday.

Pick the person who has cleaned up the fewest times so far, so the results will be balanced.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the four classmates has an equal probability of 1/4 of being chosen to clean up. In the correct method, choice C, four identical slips with the names are put in a hat and one drawn without looking, creating four equally likely slips. This assigns equal chances because the slips are identical and the draw is random. One incorrect method, choice B, introduces bias by assigning dice sums that have different numbers of ways to occur, like 6/36 for Hana's range and 15/36 for Idris's. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

5

Five friends—Kai, Luz, Mira, Omar, and Priya—need a fair way to decide who gets the first turn in a board game. Fair means each friend has probability $1/5$ of being selected. Which method is fair?

Spin a spinner with 5 equal sections, but if it lands on Priya you re-spin because Priya went first last time.

Put 5 identical cards labeled with the names into a bag, shake, and draw 1 card.

Let the oldest player go first because that seems respectful.

Roll a fair 6-sided die: 1 = Kai, 2 = Luz, 3 = Mira, 4 = Omar, 5 or 6 = Priya.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the five friends has an equal probability of 1/5 of getting the first turn. In the correct method, choice B, five identical cards with the names are put in a bag, shaken, and one drawn, so there are five equally likely cards to select. This assigns equal chances because each card is identical and the shaking ensures random selection. One incorrect method, choice A, introduces bias by assigning two die outcomes to Priya and one to each other, leading to probabilities of 1/3 for Priya and 1/6 for others. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

6

Two students, Jada and Noor, both want the last seat by the window. They agree the decision should be fair, meaning each has probability $1/2$ of getting the seat. Which procedure is fair?

Jada gets the seat today, and Noor gets it tomorrow, so the outcomes are equal over two days.

Pick the student whose first name has fewer letters.

Flip a fair coin once: heads = Jada gets the seat, tails = Noor gets the seat.

Roll a fair 6-sided die: 1–4 = Jada, 5–6 = Noor.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the two students has an equal probability of 1/2 of getting the window seat. In the correct method, choice B, a fair coin is flipped once, with heads for Jada and tails for Noor, creating two equally likely outcomes. This assigns equal chances because the coin is fair, giving each side the same probability. One incorrect method, choice D, introduces bias by assigning four die outcomes to Jada and two to Noor, resulting in probabilities of 2/3 and 1/3. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

7

Four songs—W, X, Y, and Z—are finalists for the school dance playlist, and the DJ needs a fair way to pick the first song. Fair means each song has probability $1/4$ of being chosen. Which procedure is fair?

Spin a spinner labeled W, X, Y, Z where the W section is half the circle and the other three sections split the remaining half equally.

Flip two fair coins: if you get exactly one head choose W, otherwise choose among X, Y, Z by the DJ's preference.

Pick the song that most students say they "like," because that feels fair to the group.

Use a random number generator that outputs 1, 2, 3, or 4 with equal probability; assign 1=W, 2=X, 3=Y, 4=Z.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the four songs has an equal probability of 1/4 of being chosen first. In the correct method, choice A, a random number generator outputs 1 through 4 with equal probability, each assigned to one song, creating four equally likely outcomes. This assigns equal chances because the generator ensures each number is equally probable. One incorrect method, choice B, introduces bias by making the W section half the spinner, resulting in 1/2 probability for W and 1/6 for each other. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

8

Four students—Ava, Ben, Cara, and Diego—need a fair way to choose who presents first. Fair means each student has an equal probability ($1/4$) of being selected, even if the same person could be chosen on different days. Which procedure is fair?

Have the teacher pick the student whose last name comes first alphabetically.

Write each name on an identical slip of paper, mix the slips thoroughly in a cup, and draw 1 slip.

Put 3 blue marbles and 1 red marble in a bag; each student is assigned a color, and the student with the drawn color presents first.

Flip a coin: heads means Ava or Ben presents (teacher chooses which), tails means Cara or Diego presents (teacher chooses which).

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the four students has an equal probability of 1/4 of being selected to present first. In the correct method, choice B, each student's name is written on an identical slip, mixed in a cup, and one is drawn, so there are four equally likely outcomes corresponding to the four names. This assigns equal chances because each slip has the same probability of being drawn due to thorough mixing. One incorrect method, choice A, introduces bias by using marbles of different colors with unequal numbers, likely leading to unequal selection probabilities depending on color assignments. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

9

Three movie options—Comedy, Action, and Documentary—are being considered for a class reward day. The class wants a fair method to select one, meaning each option should have probability $1/3$ of being chosen. Which procedure is fair?

Roll a fair 6-sided die: 1–2 = Comedy, 3–4 = Action, 5–6 = Documentary.

Vote, and if there is no majority, the teacher chooses the one they prefer.

Flip a coin: heads = Comedy, tails = re-flip until you get heads, then choose between Action and Documentary by a class discussion.

Spin a spinner with 3 sections labeled Comedy, Action, Documentary, but the Documentary section is slightly smaller.

Explanation

This question tests the skill of using probability to make fair decisions. Fairness means that each of the three movie options has an equal probability of 1/3 of being selected. In the correct method, choice B, a fair 6-sided die is rolled, with two numbers for each option, so each corresponds to two out of six equally likely outcomes. This assigns equal chances because the die is fair, ensuring equal probability for each grouping. One incorrect method, choice C, introduces bias by making the Documentary section smaller on the spinner, leading to a lower probability for it. Remember that fairness is about equal chances for each option, not about guaranteeing equal results over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each is equally likely.

10

Three teams (Red, Blue, Green) are tied and must be assigned to present in the first time slot. The method is fair only if each team has probability $\tfrac13$ of being chosen for the first slot (fairness is about equal chances, not equal outcomes). Which procedure is fair?

Roll a fair six-sided die: 1–2 = Red, 3–4 = Blue, 5–6 = Green.

Flip a coin: heads = Red; tails = spin a spinner that has equal halves Blue and Green.

Roll a fair six-sided die: 1–3 = Red, 4–5 = Blue, 6 = Green.

Choose the team whose name comes first alphabetically.

Explanation

The skill here is using probability to make fair decisions among three teams: Red, Blue, and Green. Fairness means each team has an equal probability of 1/3 of being chosen for the first slot. In the correct method, a fair six-sided die is rolled, assigning 1–2 to Red, 3–4 to Blue, and 5–6 to Green. This assigns equal chances because each pair of numbers has the same two outcomes out of six, making each team's probability 2/6 or 1/3. One incorrect method is rolling a die with 1–3 for Red, 4–5 for Blue, and 6 for Green, which introduces bias by giving Red a higher probability of 3/6. Remember, fairness is about equal chances for each selection, not about equal outcomes over multiple trials. To apply this elsewhere, list all possible outcomes and check if each option is equally likely.

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