Calculating Expected Value of Random Variables
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Statistics › Calculating Expected Value of Random Variables
A bag contains cards labeled 1, 2, and 5. One card is drawn at random. Let $X$ be the number on the card. The probabilities are $P(X=1)=\tfrac{1}{2}$, $P(X=2)=\tfrac{1}{3}$, and $P(X=5)=\tfrac{1}{6}$ (they sum to 1). What is the expected value of $X$?
1
2
3
4
Explanation
Expected value is the key concept, serving as the predicted average value of a random variable like the number X on a drawn card. Compute it by multiplying each X value by its probability and adding the results. Here, for X=1 with probability 1/2, X=2 with 1/3, and X=5 with 1/6, the products are 0.5, about 0.67, and about 0.83. Adding them gives exactly 2. This interprets as the long-run average number if drawing many times. Don't confuse it with a simple average of the values; it's weighted by their chances. Use the 'value × chance' mindset for similar problems.
A raffle ticket has the following net winnings (in dollars). Let $X$ be the net winnings from one ticket: $P(X=-1)=\tfrac{3}{4}$, $P(X=3)=\tfrac{1}{4}$. What is the expected value of $X$ in dollars? (It may not be an outcome.)
-1
0
1
2
Explanation
Expected value is the focus, representing the average net winnings X from many raffle tickets. Compute by multiplying each X by its probability and adding. For X=-1 with 3/4 and X=3 with 1/4, products are -0.75 and 0.75. Summing gives 0 dollars. In the long run, you'd break even on average. It's weighted by probabilities, not a plain average of outcomes— that's an important misconception to avoid. Use the 'value × chance' approach for each possibility.
A spinner game defines a random variable $X$ as the number of points you score in one spin. The distribution is:
- $P(X=1)=\tfrac{1}{3}$
- $P(X=4)=\tfrac{1}{3}$
- $P(X=7)=\tfrac{1}{3}$
What is the expected value of $X$ (in points)? (Note: the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
1
4
5
12
Explanation
Expected value is the key concept, giving the average points you'd expect from many spins. Compute it by multiplying each X value by its probability and adding the results. Here, 1 times 1/3 is about 0.33, 4 times 1/3 is about 1.33, and 7 times 1/3 is about 2.33. Adding them yields 4 points. Over many spins, you'd average 4 points each time. Don't confuse this with the simple average of outcomes; it's weighted equally here since probabilities are equal, but generally it's a weighted average. Use the 'value times chance' approach for similar problems.
A single fair six-sided die is rolled once. Let $X$ be the number shown. The distribution is $P(X=k)=\tfrac{1}{6}$ for $k=1,2,3,4,5,6$. What is the expected value of $X$? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
2.5
3
3.5
6
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. For this die roll, apply it by calculating 1 × (1/6), 2 × (1/6), 3 × (1/6), 4 × (1/6), 5 × (1/6), and 6 × (1/6). Then sum these products to find the expected number shown. This value represents the long-run average result per roll. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.
A simple game defines a random variable $X$ as the number of points scored in one round. The distribution is: $P(X=1)=0.3$, $P(X=2)=0.4$, $P(X=5)=0.3$. What is the expected value of $X$ (in points)? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
3
5
2.6
2.666\ldots
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. In this simple game, apply it by calculating 1 × 0.3, 2 × 0.4, and 5 × 0.3. Then sum these products to find the expected points. This value represents the long-run average points per round. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.
A survey records the number of text messages a randomly selected person sends in an hour. Let $X$ be the number of messages. The distribution is: $P(X=0)=0.5$, $P(X=2)=0.3$, $P(X=4)=0.2$. What is the expected value of $X$ (in messages)? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
0.5
0.7
1.4
2
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. In this survey, apply it by calculating 0 × 0.5, 2 × 0.3, and 4 × 0.2. Then sum these products to find the expected number of messages. This value represents the long-run average messages per hour. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.
A box contains 3 red balls and 1 blue ball. One ball is drawn at random. Let $X$ be the value of the draw, where $X=2$ if the ball is red and $X=8$ if the ball is blue. The distribution is: $P(X=2)=\tfrac{3}{4}$, $P(X=8)=\tfrac{1}{4}$. What is the expected value of $X$? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
2
3.5
5
8
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. For this ball draw, apply it by calculating 2 × (3/4) and 8 × (1/4). Then sum these products to find the expected value of the draw. This value represents the long-run average value per draw. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.
A survey records how many cups of coffee a randomly selected student drank yesterday. Let $X$ be the number of cups. The distribution is: $P(X=0)=0.2$, $P(X=1)=0.5$, $P(X=2)=0.2$, $P(X=3)=0.1$. What is the expected value of $X$ (in cups)? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
0.8
1.2
1.5
2
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. In this survey, apply it by calculating 0 × 0.2, 1 × 0.5, 2 × 0.2, and 3 × 0.1. Then sum these products to find the expected number of cups. This value represents the long-run average cups of coffee per student. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.
A spinner game defines a random variable $X$ as the prize amount (in dollars) from one spin. The distribution is: $P(X=0)=\tfrac{1}{2}$, $P(X=4)=\tfrac{1}{4}$, and $P(X=10)=\tfrac{1}{4}$. What is the expected value of $X$ (in dollars)? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
7
10
3.5
4.666\ldots
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. In this spinner game, apply it by calculating 0 × (1/2), 4 × (1/4), and 10 × (1/4). Then sum these products to find the expected prize amount. This value represents the long-run average prize per spin. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.
A fair coin is flipped twice. Define the random variable $X$ as the number of heads obtained. The distribution is: $P(X=0)=\tfrac{1}{4}$, $P(X=1)=\tfrac{1}{2}$, $P(X=2)=\tfrac{1}{4}$. What is the expected value of $X$? (Compute $\sum x,P(x)$; the expected value may not be a possible outcome.)
0.75
1
1.5
2
Explanation
The concept here is the expected value, which is the predicted average outcome for the random variable X over many trials. Conceptually, the formula is to multiply each possible value by its probability and then add those up. For these coin flips, apply it by calculating 0 × (1/4), 1 × (1/2), and 2 × (1/4). Then sum these products to find the expected number of heads. This value represents the long-run average number of heads per two flips. A common misconception is to take the simple average of the possible values without considering their probabilities, but we must use the weighted average based on how likely each is. For future problems, remember the strategy: think 'value × chance' for each outcome and sum them.