Inference and Experiments

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AP Statistics › Inference and Experiments

Questions 1 - 10
1

Researchers want to study whether people who sleep fewer hours tend to have higher stress. They recruit 300 volunteers from a large company by emailing all employees; those who respond complete a survey reporting average sleep hours and a stress score. Which conclusion is justified based on the design?

(Assume accurate self-reporting.)

The study can describe an association between sleep and stress among the volunteers, but it cannot establish causation or be safely generalized to all employees.

Because employees self-selected into the study, random assignment is guaranteed, so causation can be concluded.

The study shows that sleeping fewer hours causes higher stress for all adults.

The study can establish a cause-and-effect relationship between sleep and stress for the volunteers.

Because there is a large sample size, the results can be generalized to all employees at the company and establish causation.

Explanation

This question evaluates the AP Statistics skill of distinguishing observational studies from experiments and the role of randomization in drawing inferences. The study lacks random assignment, as volunteers self-report sleep and stress without treatment manipulation, making it observational and unable to establish causation due to potential confounders like lifestyle factors. There is no random sampling either, since participants self-selected via email response, so results cannot be safely generalized beyond the volunteers. Choice E distracts by claiming self-selection guarantees random assignment, which is false; random assignment requires researcher control. In a mini-lesson on inference types, observational studies can describe associations in the sample but need random sampling for population generalization and random assignment (turning it into an experiment) for causation. Here, only an association among volunteers can be described, without broader inferences or causal claims.

2

A state transportation agency wanted to estimate the average time (in minutes) that commuters spend waiting for a train during weekday mornings. The agency randomly selected 15 train stations from all stations in the state and then, at each selected station, recorded the waiting time for the first 20 commuters who arrived between 7:00 and 9:00 AM on a single Tuesday. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Because the agency observed waiting times, it can conclude that arriving earlier causes shorter waits.

Because the agency collected data on a Tuesday, the agency can conclude the average waiting time is the same on all days of the week.

Because train stations were randomly selected, the agency can generalize the results to all weekday-morning commuters in the state without concern.

Because commuters were not randomly selected within each station (only the first 20 arrivals), selection bias may limit how well the results represent all weekday-morning commuters at those stations.

Because the total sample size is $15\times 20=300$, the agency can generalize the results to all commuters in the entire country.

Explanation

This question evaluates understanding of complex sampling designs and selection bias. The agency used a two-stage sampling process: random selection of 15 stations (good for generalization) followed by convenience sampling of the first 20 arrivals at each station (problematic). The first 20 commuters to arrive between 7-9 AM may not represent all commuters at those stations - early arrivers might have different travel patterns or waiting experiences than later arrivers. This selection bias within stations limits how well the results represent all weekday morning commuters even at the sampled stations. Additionally, data from a single Tuesday cannot support conclusions about all weekdays. The correct answer identifies the within-station selection bias as the key limitation. Students often focus only on the first stage of sampling and miss bias introduced in subsequent stages.

3

A company wanted to know whether allowing employees to work from home two days per week increases job satisfaction. The company surveyed all 300 employees and recorded each employee’s current work arrangement (fully in-office vs. hybrid) and their satisfaction score on a 1–10 scale. Hybrid employees had higher average satisfaction. No employees were assigned to a work arrangement by the researchers. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Working hybrid causes higher job satisfaction because the company measured all employees.

Hybrid work is associated with higher job satisfaction for all employees nationwide because all employees at this company were surveyed.

Hybrid work causes higher job satisfaction because the sample size is large.

Hybrid work causes higher job satisfaction because the survey included a comparison group.

Hybrid work is associated with higher job satisfaction at this company, but the study does not justify a cause-and-effect claim.

Explanation

This question tests recognition of observational studies and their limitations for causal inference. The key skill is understanding that without random assignment, only associations can be established, not causation. The company surveyed all employees about their existing work arrangements and satisfaction levels, making this a census observational study. While the data shows hybrid employees have higher average satisfaction, this association does not prove that hybrid work causes higher satisfaction - there could be confounding factors (perhaps more senior employees choose hybrid work and are also more satisfied). The absence of random assignment to work arrangements means we cannot rule out alternative explanations for the observed difference. Even though all employees were surveyed (a census), this complete enumeration doesn't change the fundamental limitation that observational studies cannot establish causation, only associations.

4

A nutrition researcher wanted to test whether a new high-fiber snack reduces afternoon hunger. She recruited 60 volunteers from a gym and matched them into 30 pairs based on age and baseline hunger rating. Within each pair, one person was randomly assigned to eat the high-fiber snack each afternoon for 2 weeks, and the other was randomly assigned to eat a standard snack with the same calories. At the end of 2 weeks, the high-fiber group reported lower average hunger. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Because pairs were matched, the results can be generalized to all gym members in the city.

Because the standard snack had the same calories, the study is observational and cannot support a causal conclusion.

The high-fiber snack is associated with lower afternoon hunger among gym members, but causation cannot be inferred because the subjects volunteered.

The high-fiber snack likely caused lower afternoon hunger for the gym volunteers in this study.

The high-fiber snack caused lower afternoon hunger for all adults because matching eliminates all confounding.

Explanation

This question tests understanding of matched-pairs experiments with volunteer subjects. The key skill is recognizing that random assignment within matched pairs allows causal inference, but volunteer samples limit generalization. The researcher created matched pairs based on age and baseline hunger, then randomly assigned treatments within each pair, making this a matched-pairs experiment. The random assignment within pairs controls for the matching variables and allows causal inference - the high-fiber snack likely caused lower afternoon hunger. However, because subjects were volunteers from a gym rather than randomly selected, the causal conclusion applies only to these volunteers, not to all gym members or adults generally. Matching improves precision by controlling for specific variables, but it doesn't enable broader generalization beyond the volunteer sample. The design supports causation for the study participants but not population-wide inference.

5

A sports scientist recruited 40 volunteer runners from a local running club to test whether a new stretching routine reduces 5K race times. The 40 volunteers were randomly assigned to either use the new routine or continue their usual warm-up for 6 weeks, then each ran a timed 5K. The new-routine group had a lower mean time. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

The new routine caused faster 5K times for all runners everywhere because random assignment was used.

The new routine caused faster 5K times for all members of the local running club because the runners were randomly assigned.

The new routine caused faster 5K times for all adult runners in the city because the study used a control group.

The new routine is associated with faster 5K times, but causation cannot be inferred because the runners volunteered.

The new routine caused faster 5K times for runners in the local running club who volunteered for the study.

Explanation

This question tests understanding of the scope of causal conclusions in experiments with volunteer samples. The key skill is recognizing that random assignment allows causal inference, but only for the specific group studied when volunteers are used. The sports scientist used random assignment to allocate the 40 volunteers to either the new routine or control group, making this an experiment that can support causal conclusions. However, because the runners volunteered from a local club rather than being randomly selected, the causal conclusion is limited to those volunteers who participated, not all club members or all runners generally. Random assignment eliminates confounding and permits causal inference for the experimental subjects, but without random selection from a larger population, we cannot generalize beyond the study participants. The correct interpretation acknowledges both the causal nature of the conclusion and its limited scope.

6

To test whether background music affects reading comprehension, a researcher randomly selected 120 students from all first-year students at a university. Each selected student was randomly assigned to read a passage either in silence or while listening to instrumental music, then took the same comprehension quiz. The music group scored higher on average. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Listening to instrumental music caused higher reading comprehension for the 120 selected students only, but not for other first-year students.

Listening to instrumental music caused higher reading comprehension for first-year students at this university.

Listening to instrumental music caused higher reading comprehension for all college students because random selection was used.

Listening to instrumental music is associated with higher reading comprehension for first-year students at this university, but causation cannot be inferred.

Because the music group scored higher, instrumental music will improve comprehension for every individual student.

Explanation

This question tests understanding of experiments that combine random selection with random assignment. The key skill is recognizing that this design allows both causal inference and generalization to the sampled population. The researcher used random selection to choose 120 students from all first-year students, then randomly assigned them to music or silence conditions. This is a true experiment because of the random assignment, which eliminates confounding and allows us to conclude that the music caused higher comprehension scores. Additionally, because the students were randomly selected from all first-year students at the university, we can generalize this causal conclusion to that entire population. The combination of random selection (for generalization) and random assignment (for causation) makes this a powerful design. The causal conclusion applies to first-year students at this university, not just the 120 in the study.

7

A doctor wants to compare two medications for lowering blood pressure. She enrolls 120 patients from her clinic who meet eligibility criteria. She then randomly assigns 60 patients to Medication A and 60 patients to Medication B for 8 weeks and compares the mean reduction in systolic blood pressure. Which conclusion is justified based on the design?

Because the doctor used volunteers from her clinic, she can conclude only an association, not causation.

Because there was no random sampling, the doctor cannot compare the two medications even for her clinic patients.

Because patients were randomly assigned, the doctor can generalize the results to all patients with high blood pressure nationwide.

Because this is an experiment, the doctor can conclude Medication A causes lower blood pressure for all humans.

If Medication A shows a larger mean reduction, the doctor can conclude Medication A caused a larger reduction for patients like those in her clinic.

Explanation

This question probes AP Statistics understanding of experimental inference, emphasizing causation and limits on generalization. Random assignment of patients to medications allows a cause-and-effect conclusion about blood pressure reduction, as it minimizes confounding. However, without random sampling from a broader population, results apply only to similar clinic patients, not nationwide. Choice B is a distractor, incorrectly claiming random assignment enables national generalization. A mini-lesson on inference: experiments with random assignment support causality within the studied group, while random sampling extends to populations; volunteers limit scope. Thus, the doctor can conclude causation for her clinic-like patients.

8

A researcher wanted to test whether a mindfulness app reduces stress among nurses at a large hospital. From a list of all 900 nurses at the hospital, the researcher randomly selected 150 nurses to participate. The 150 selected nurses were then randomly assigned to either use the mindfulness app daily for 4 weeks or to a control group that received no app. After 4 weeks, the app group had a lower mean stress score on a standardized questionnaire. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Using the mindfulness app caused lower stress only for the 150 selected nurses, and the result cannot be generalized even to the hospital’s nurses.

Using the mindfulness app caused lower stress for all nurses nationwide because random selection was used.

Because the control group received no app, the study is observational and cannot support a causal claim.

Using the mindfulness app caused lower stress for the nurses in the study, and the result can be generalized to all nurses at this hospital.

Using the mindfulness app is associated with lower stress for the nurses in the study, but causation cannot be inferred because participation was voluntary.

Explanation

This question tests understanding of experiments combining random selection and random assignment for both causation and generalization. The key skill is recognizing when both types of inference are justified by the study design. The researcher first randomly selected 150 nurses from all 900 at the hospital (random selection), then randomly assigned these 150 to app or control groups (random assignment). This design is a true experiment because of random assignment, allowing the conclusion that the app caused lower stress. Additionally, because the 150 nurses were randomly selected from all hospital nurses, this causal conclusion can be generalized to all nurses at the hospital. The combination of random selection from the hospital's nurses and random assignment to treatments creates a powerful design supporting both causal inference and generalization to the specific population sampled (hospital nurses, not all nurses nationwide).

9

A researcher investigated the relationship between sleep and GPA among high school seniors. The researcher randomly selected 200 seniors from the school roster. Each selected student reported their average hours of sleep per night and their current GPA. The researcher found that students who reported more sleep tended to have higher GPAs. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Because the researcher found a trend, the researcher can conclude that increasing sleep will raise GPA for each individual student.

Because students self-reported sleep, the researcher can conclude that sleep has no effect on GPA.

More sleep causes higher GPA among high school seniors because the sample was randomly selected.

There is evidence of an association between reported sleep and GPA among seniors at this school, but a cause-and-effect conclusion is not justified.

Because 200 seniors were studied, sleep and GPA must be strongly correlated for all teenagers.

Explanation

This question assesses understanding of observational studies and correlation versus causation. The researcher used random selection of seniors from the school, which supports generalization to all seniors at that school. However, this is an observational study where students self-reported both sleep and GPA - there was no random assignment to different sleep amounts. The observed association (students reporting more sleep tend to have higher GPAs) could be due to confounding variables like study habits, stress levels, or family support that affect both sleep and grades. Without random assignment, we cannot conclude that sleep causes higher GPA. The correct answer properly identifies an association while rejecting causal claims. A classic error is interpreting any relationship between variables as proof of causation.

10

A beverage company completed an experiment to test whether a new packaging design increases purchase intent. The company recruited 300 online panelists (not randomly sampled from all consumers). Each participant was randomly assigned to view either the current package or the new package, then rated purchase intent on a 1–10 scale. The new-package group had a higher mean rating. Which conclusion is justified based on the design of this study?

Because participants were randomly assigned, the new package caused higher purchase-intent ratings among these panelists, but generalizing to all consumers is not justified.

Because the new-package group rated higher, the new package is associated with higher intent for all consumers, and causation is justified.

Because the sample size is 300, the new package caused higher purchase intent for all consumers.

Because the study was done online, it is observational and only association can be concluded.

Because the participants were not randomly sampled, causation cannot be concluded.

Explanation

This question assesses understanding of experiments with limited generalizability. The study uses random assignment (participants randomly assigned to view different packages), which allows causal conclusions - the new package caused higher purchase intent among these 300 panelists. However, online panelists were not randomly sampled from all consumers, so results cannot be generalized to the broader consumer population. The key distractor is choice C, which incorrectly claims lack of random sampling prevents causal conclusions. In experimental design, random assignment (not random sampling) is what permits causal inference. This study can conclude causation for the participants studied but cannot generalize that causal effect to all consumers due to the convenience sample.

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