Effect of Changes, Foreign Exchange Market

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AP Macroeconomics › Effect of Changes, Foreign Exchange Market

Questions 1 - 10
1

The domestic currency is the Indian rupee (INR). The government reduces the budget deficit, decreasing government borrowing and lowering domestic interest rates relative to rates abroad. Based on the foreign exchange market shown, what is the most likely immediate effect on the INR (exchange rate measured in foreign currency per INR)?

Supply of INR decreases due to lower interest rates, so the INR appreciates.

Supply of INR increases due to lower imports, so the INR depreciates.

Supply of INR decreases due to higher expected returns, so the INR appreciates.

Demand for INR decreases due to reduced capital inflows, so the INR depreciates.

Demand for INR increases due to reduced capital inflows, so the INR appreciates.

Explanation

The FX market responds to fiscal consolidation through its impact on domestic interest rates and international capital flows. When India reduces its budget deficit, the government borrows less in credit markets, reducing demand for loanable funds and lowering Indian interest rates relative to foreign rates. With lower returns available on Indian bonds and deposits, foreign investors reduce their INR holdings, decreasing demand for the rupee. This leftward shift of the demand curve from D1 to D2 lowers the exchange rate, causing INR depreciation. A common error is thinking fiscal discipline always strengthens a currency—the interest rate channel can dominate. The fiscal-monetary link strategy: lower government borrowing → reduced interest rates → decreased foreign investment → lower currency demand → depreciation.

2

The domestic currency is the South Korean won (KRW). Foreign consumers develop a stronger preference for South Korean electronics, increasing foreign purchases of South Korean exports. Based on the foreign exchange market shown, what happens to the won?

Assume the exchange rate is measured as $\text{USD per won (USD/KRW)}$.

The supply of won shifts right due to higher exports, causing the won to depreciate and $\text{USD/KRW}$ to fall.

The demand for won shifts left due to higher exports, causing the won to depreciate and $\text{USD/KRW}$ to fall.

The supply of won shifts right due to higher capital inflows, causing the won to appreciate and $\text{USD/KRW}$ to rise.

The demand for won shifts right due to higher exports, causing the won to appreciate and $\text{USD/KRW}$ to rise.

The supply of won shifts left due to higher imports, causing the won to appreciate and $\text{USD/KRW}$ to rise.

Explanation

The FX market connects trade flows to currency values through transaction demand for currencies. When foreign consumers increase purchases of South Korean electronics, they need won to pay Korean exporters, shifting the demand curve for won to the right. This increased demand from trade flows pushes up the won's value, shown as a higher equilibrium exchange rate where USD/KRW rises (more USD per won). The won appreciates as export demand strengthens. A key misconception is thinking exporters supply their currency—actually, foreign buyers demand it for purchases. Strategy: Higher exports → foreign buyers need domestic currency → demand shifts right → currency appreciates.

3

The domestic currency is the British pound (GBP). Investors revise expectations upward about the future returns on UK financial assets (for example, due to anticipated higher corporate profits), holding current interest rates constant.

Based on the foreign exchange market shown, what happens to the pound and which curve shift best explains it? (Exchange rate is measured as $\text{USD per 1 GBP}$.)

The demand for GBP shifts right and $\text{USD per 1 GBP}$ rises, because higher expected returns increase capital inflows to the UK.

The demand for GBP shifts left and $\text{USD per 1 GBP}$ falls, because higher expected returns reduce foreign investment in the UK.

The demand for GBP shifts right and $\text{USD per 1 GBP}$ falls, because higher expected returns increase the supply of pounds in the market.

The supply of GBP shifts left and $\text{USD per 1 GBP}$ falls, because higher expected returns increase UK purchases of foreign assets.

The supply of GBP shifts right and $\text{USD per 1 GBP}$ rises, because higher expected returns increase UK imports.

Explanation

The FX market determines currency values through supply and demand, with demand for the British pound (GBP) increasing when investors seek UK assets for higher returns. Upward revisions in expected returns on UK financial assets attract capital inflows, shifting demand for GBP right. In the provided FX graph (USD per GBP vertical), this results in a higher equilibrium exchange rate, appreciating the GBP. A common misconception is that higher returns boost UK imports and GBP supply, but the key effect is demand from foreign investors. Remember the strategy: identify the driver (expected return increase), note the FX shift (demand right), and evaluate the exchange rate (appreciation). This framework aids in analyzing investor sentiment changes.

4

The domestic currency is the U.S. dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve raises its target for the federal funds rate, increasing U.S. interest rates relative to interest rates abroad. Based on the foreign exchange market shown, which of the following best describes the change in the market for USD and the resulting exchange rate (measured as JPY per USD)?

Supply of USD decreases due to reduced U.S. government borrowing, causing the USD to appreciate and the exchange rate (JPY per USD) to rise.

Demand for USD increases due to higher expected returns on U.S. assets, causing the USD to appreciate and the exchange rate (JPY per USD) to rise.

Supply of USD increases due to higher U.S. imports, causing the USD to depreciate and the exchange rate (JPY per USD) to fall.

Demand for USD decreases because higher interest rates reduce the quantity of money demanded, causing the USD to depreciate and the exchange rate (JPY per USD) to fall.

Demand for USD decreases due to lower foreign demand for U.S. exports, causing the USD to depreciate and the exchange rate (JPY per USD) to fall.

Explanation

The foreign exchange (FX) market determines currency values through supply and demand for currencies. When the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates relative to foreign rates, U.S. financial assets become more attractive to global investors seeking higher returns. This increased attractiveness causes foreign investors to demand more U.S. dollars to purchase U.S. bonds, stocks, and other dollar-denominated assets, shifting the demand curve for USD to the right. On a graph with quantity of USD on the x-axis and exchange rate (JPY per USD) on the y-axis, this rightward demand shift raises the equilibrium exchange rate, meaning each dollar now buys more yen—the USD appreciates. A common misconception is confusing interest rates with money demand; higher interest rates attract foreign capital, not reduce domestic money demand. The strategy is: identify what makes a currency more attractive → determine if it affects demand or supply → predict the exchange rate change.

5

The domestic currency is the euro (EUR). Households abroad experience higher income and increase tourism and purchases of goods and services from the euro area. Based on the foreign exchange market shown, which change best explains the new equilibrium?

Assume the exchange rate is measured as $\text{USD per euro (USD/EUR)}$.

The supply of euros shifts right because euro-area imports rise, causing $\text{USD/EUR}$ to fall.

The demand for euros shifts right because euro-area investors buy foreign assets, causing $\text{USD/EUR}$ to fall.

The demand for euros shifts right because foreigners buy euro-area goods, causing $\text{USD/EUR}$ to rise.

The demand for euros shifts left because euro-area exports rise, causing $\text{USD/EUR}$ to fall.

The supply of euros shifts left because foreigners buy euro-area goods, causing $\text{USD/EUR}$ to rise.

Explanation

The FX market connects international trade to currency values through the demand for currencies needed in transactions. When foreign households increase purchases of euro-area goods and services, they must first acquire euros, increasing demand for euros in the FX market. This rightward shift in euro demand creates upward pressure on the euro's value, shown as movement along the supply curve to a higher exchange rate. The euro appreciates, meaning USD/EUR rises as it takes more dollars to buy one euro. A key misconception is thinking about who supplies versus demands currency—foreigners buying European goods demand euros, not supply them. Strategy: Increased exports → foreign buyers need domestic currency → demand curve shifts right → currency appreciates.

6

The domestic currency is the Swiss franc (CHF). A rise in global risk aversion increases investors’ preference for Swiss financial assets, raising demand for CHF-denominated assets. Based on the foreign exchange market shown, what happens to the CHF (exchange rate measured in foreign currency per CHF)?

Supply of CHF increases because Swiss exports rise, so the CHF appreciates.

Supply of CHF increases because foreigners buy Swiss assets, so the CHF depreciates.

Supply of CHF decreases because Swiss imports rise, so the CHF depreciates.

Demand for CHF decreases because capital inflows rise, so the CHF depreciates.

Demand for CHF increases because capital inflows rise, so the CHF appreciates.

Explanation

The FX market reflects global risk preferences, with certain currencies serving as "safe havens" during uncertainty. When global risk aversion rises—perhaps due to geopolitical tensions or financial instability—investors seek the safety of Swiss assets, renowned for stability and strong property rights. This flight to quality increases demand for CHF as investors need the currency to purchase Swiss bonds and deposits. The demand curve for CHF shifts rightward from D1 to D2, raising the exchange rate and causing CHF appreciation. A common mistake is thinking safe-haven flows work through supply; they operate through increased demand. The risk strategy: higher global uncertainty → increased demand for safe-haven currencies → rightward demand shift → currency appreciation.

7

The domestic currency is the Canadian dollar (CAD). A boom in foreign incomes increases foreign demand for Canadian exports, increasing foreigners’ need to buy CAD to purchase Canadian goods and services. Based on the foreign exchange market shown, what happens to the CAD in the short run (exchange rate measured in foreign currency per CAD)?

Supply of CAD increases due to higher foreign demand for exports, so the CAD depreciates.

Demand for CAD increases due to higher trade-related purchases, so the CAD appreciates.

Demand for CAD increases due to lower Canadian interest rates, so the CAD depreciates.

Supply of CAD decreases due to higher Canadian imports, so the CAD appreciates.

Demand for CAD decreases due to lower capital inflows, so the CAD depreciates.

Explanation

The FX market facilitates international trade by converting currencies for cross-border transactions. When foreign incomes rise, foreign consumers and businesses increase their purchases of Canadian exports like oil, lumber, and manufactured goods. To pay Canadian exporters, foreigners must first acquire CAD in the FX market, increasing demand for the Canadian currency. This shifts the demand curve for CAD rightward from D1 to D2, raising the exchange rate (more foreign currency per CAD) and causing CAD appreciation. A common mistake is thinking higher exports increase supply of CAD—exports actually increase foreign demand for CAD. The trade-focused strategy: identify which country's exports rise → foreigners need more of that currency → demand curve shifts right → currency appreciates.

8

Based on the foreign exchange market shown for the Swiss franc (CHF), investors expect higher returns on Swiss financial assets due to improved profitability of Swiss firms. Holding other factors constant, which change best describes the foreign exchange market for francs and the resulting exchange rate (price of CHF in euros, €/CHF)?

Demand for francs increases, causing the franc to appreciate as the equilibrium €/CHF rises.

Supply of francs increases, causing the franc to depreciate as the equilibrium €/CHF falls.

Supply of francs decreases, causing the franc to depreciate as the equilibrium €/CHF falls.

Demand for francs decreases, causing the franc to depreciate as the equilibrium €/CHF falls.

Supply of francs increases, causing the franc to appreciate as the equilibrium €/CHF rises.

Explanation

The foreign exchange market for Swiss francs uses euros as the reference currency, with €/CHF on the vertical axis showing how many euros one franc costs. When investors expect higher returns on Swiss financial assets due to improved profitability of Swiss firms, international investors become eager to buy Swiss stocks and bonds. To purchase these Swiss assets, foreign investors must first acquire Swiss francs, increasing the demand for CHF in the FX market. This shifts the demand curve for francs to the right, leading to a new equilibrium at a higher exchange rate (€/CHF rises). The higher rate means each Swiss franc now costs more euros—the franc appreciates relative to the euro. Students sometimes confuse expected returns with interest rates, but both can drive investment flows and currency demand. The analytical framework remains consistent: higher expected returns on assets → increased foreign investment interest → greater currency demand → currency appreciation.

9

Based on the foreign exchange market shown for the Indian rupee (INR), investors revise expectations downward about future returns on Indian assets because of increased perceived risk. Holding other factors constant, which change best describes the foreign exchange market for rupees and the resulting exchange rate (price of INR in U.S. dollars, $/INR)?

Demand for rupees increases, causing the rupee to appreciate as the equilibrium $/INR rises.

Supply of rupees increases, causing the rupee to appreciate as the equilibrium $/INR rises.

Demand for rupees decreases, causing the rupee to depreciate as the equilibrium $/INR falls.

Supply of rupees decreases, causing the rupee to depreciate as the equilibrium $/INR falls.

Supply of rupees decreases, causing the rupee to appreciate as the equilibrium $/INR rises.

Explanation

In the foreign exchange market for Indian rupees, the equilibrium $/INR rate reflects the balance of supply and demand for rupees. When investors revise their expectations downward about Indian assets due to increased perceived risk, they become less willing to hold Indian stocks, bonds, or other investments. Foreign investors will reduce their demand for rupees since they need fewer rupees for Indian investments, while some may even sell existing Indian assets. This decreased appetite for Indian assets shifts the demand curve for rupees to the left. The new equilibrium occurs at a lower exchange rate ($/INR falls), meaning each rupee now costs fewer dollars—the rupee depreciates. A common misconception is focusing on Indian investors fleeing, but the primary FX effect comes from reduced foreign investment demand. The strategy for risk-related analysis is: increased perceived risk → reduced foreign investment → decreased currency demand → currency depreciation.

10

Based on the foreign exchange market shown for the British pound (GBP), the U.K. government increases deficit spending, raising government borrowing and increasing U.K. interest rates relative to rates abroad. Which outcome is most consistent with the model (price of pounds in U.S. dollars, $/GBP)?

Supply of pounds increases, causing the pound to depreciate as the equilibrium $/GBP falls.

Supply of pounds decreases, causing the pound to depreciate as the equilibrium $/GBP falls.

Supply of pounds increases, causing the pound to appreciate as the equilibrium $/GBP rises.

Demand for pounds increases, causing the pound to appreciate as the equilibrium $/GBP rises.

Demand for pounds decreases, causing the pound to depreciate as the equilibrium $/GBP falls.

Explanation

In the foreign exchange market for British pounds, the equilibrium $/GBP rate responds to changes in relative interest rates driven by fiscal policy. When the U.K. government increases deficit spending, it must borrow more in financial markets, which increases the demand for loanable funds and pushes U.K. interest rates higher relative to rates abroad. These higher U.K. interest rates make British government bonds and other sterling-denominated assets more attractive to international investors seeking better returns. Foreign investors must acquire pounds to purchase these U.K. assets, increasing the demand for GBP and shifting the demand curve to the right in the FX market. This results in a higher equilibrium exchange rate ($/GBP rises), meaning the pound appreciates as it takes more dollars to buy one pound. A common error is thinking deficit spending directly weakens a currency, but the interest rate effect often dominates in the short run. The strategy follows this sequence: fiscal expansion → increased government borrowing → higher interest rates → capital inflows → currency appreciation.

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