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Causes and Effects of Demographic Change Practice Test

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Scenario: Aging Population (Japan and Italy)

Overview of demographic changes

Japan and Italy are experiencing sustained population aging driven by low birth rates, high life expectancy, and limited long-term immigration. In Japan, about 29% of residents are age 65 or older, while roughly 12% are under 15. Italy shows a similar pattern: about 24% are 65+, and around 13% are under 15. Death rates have risen relative to births in both countries, so total population growth is weak or negative. These shifts change the balance between working-age taxpayers and retirees, and they amplify debates about pensions, healthcare, and the role of the state.

Causes

Japan: Later marriage, high costs of housing and childrearing, and demanding work norms have contributed to fewer births. Longer life expectancy means more people live into older age. Immigration has increased slightly in recent years but remains modest compared with many other high-income states.

Italy: Economic uncertainty for young adults, delayed family formation, and regional job gaps have discouraged larger families. Italy also has high life expectancy. Migration has helped fill some labor needs, but it has not reversed aging at a national scale.

Political Effects

Japan: A larger older electorate increases pressure to protect pensions and expand elder care. The government has raised the pension eligibility age gradually and promoted “active aging” and community-based care to reduce hospital burdens. Policymakers also debate how much to rely on foreign workers, balancing labor shortages with administrative and social integration capacity.

Italy: Aging strains public budgets and complicates coalition bargaining over taxes and benefits. Governments have pursued pension reforms to slow spending growth and have expanded support for home-based care, partly to reduce pressure on hospitals. Political priorities increasingly emphasize intergenerational fairness: how to fund benefits without placing excessive burdens on younger workers.

Economic Effects

Japan: A shrinking working-age population tightens labor markets, encouraging automation and higher labor-force participation among women and older workers. However, slower labor-force growth can reduce overall economic growth unless productivity rises.

Italy: Aging can limit the supply of workers and slow growth, especially where youth employment is already fragile. Fiscal pressure increases as pension and healthcare costs rise, leaving less room for public investment. Both countries face a similar challenge: sustaining social services while maintaining a competitive economy.

According to the text, what are the primary factors driving demographic change in the examples provided?

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