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AP Government and Politics Quiz

AP Government and Politics Quiz: Evaluating Public Opinion Data

Practice Evaluating Public Opinion Data in AP Government and Politics with focused quiz questions that help you check what you know, review explanations, and build confidence with test-style prompts.

Question 1 / 20

0 of 20 answered

A poll reports favorability toward the Supreme Court: 2022: 43% favorable; 2023: 38%; 2024: 35%. What conclusion is most supported?

Select an answer to continue

What this quiz covers

This quiz focuses on Evaluating Public Opinion Data, giving you a quick way to practice the rules, question types, and explanations that matter most for AP Government and Politics.

How to use this quiz

Try each quiz question before looking at the correct answer. Use the explanations to review missed ideas, then come back to similar questions until the pattern feels familiar.

All questions

Question 1

A poll reports favorability toward the Supreme Court: 2022: 43% favorable; 2023: 38%; 2024: 35%. What conclusion is most supported?

  1. Favorability shows a steady decline across the three years, suggesting a downward trend in public evaluations over this period. (correct answer)
  2. Favorability increased overall, indicating growing approval as time passed from 2022 to 2024.
  3. Because favorability is 35% in 2024, exactly 65% are unfavorable, proving opinions are strictly binary with no neutral responses.
  4. The trend proves a specific Court decision caused the decline, since any change in favorability must be driven by one event.
  5. The data show 2024 is an outlier and should be ignored, because public opinion cannot change in the same direction for three years.

Explanation: This question tests trend identification in Supreme Court favorability ratings. The data shows 43% (2022), 38% (2023), 35% (2024) - a consistent year-over-year decline. The correct answer accurately describes this steady downward trend. Option B incorrectly claims increasing favorability. Option C makes an unsupported assumption about response categories. Option D wrongly attributes the trend to a single cause. Option E dismisses valid data without justification. When examining time series data, identify the actual pattern (here, consistent decline) rather than imposing alternative interpretations or making causal claims not supported by the data.

Question 2

A poll asks whether the U.S. is on the “right track”: 34% yes, 56% no, 10% unsure. Which conclusion is most supported?​

  1. More respondents say “wrong track” than “right track,” indicating overall pessimism, while a notable minority remains unsure. (correct answer)
  2. Most respondents believe the country is on the right track, demonstrating broad optimism about national conditions.
  3. The poll proves that pessimism causes lower economic growth, since national mood and economic performance move together.
  4. Because 10% are unsure, the poll is invalid and cannot be used to describe public opinion about national direction.
  5. Since 34% say right track, it follows that exactly 34% approve of the president, as those attitudes are identical.

Explanation: This question tests interpretation of right track/wrong track polling. The data shows 34% right track, 56% wrong track, and 10% unsure - indicating more pessimism than optimism with a notable undecided group. The correct answer accurately describes this distribution showing overall pessimism. Option B contradicts the data by claiming most say right track. Option C incorrectly infers economic causation. Option D wrongly dismisses valid polling due to unsure responses. Option E makes an unsupported claim linking directional assessment to presidential approval. When evaluating opinion distributions, describe what the numbers actually show rather than making causal inferences or assuming attitude linkages.

Question 3

A 2024 statewide poll shows support for a \15$ minimum wage: 18–29 (72% support, 20% oppose), 30–49 (58/34), 50–64 (49/43), 65+ (41/50). Overall support is 55%. Which conclusion is best supported?

  1. Overall support is 55%, but support steadily declines with age, and seniors are the only group with majority opposition. (correct answer)
  2. Because young adults strongly support the policy, the policy will certainly pass regardless of turnout differences across age groups.
  3. Opposition is highest among 18–29-year-olds, suggesting younger voters are most concerned about job losses from wage increases.
  4. Support increases with age, indicating older voters are more likely to favor government intervention in wages than younger voters.
  5. Since overall support is a majority, every age group must have at least 50% support for the policy.

Explanation: This question assesses the skill of evaluating public opinion data in AP US Government and Politics by requiring analysis of poll results on minimum wage support across age groups. The key pattern in the data is a steady decline in support as age increases, from 72% among 18-29 year olds to 41% among those 65 and older, with opposition rising correspondingly and overall support at 55%. Choice A is the best supported conclusion because it accurately captures the overall support level, the declining trend with age, and identifies seniors as the only group where opposition reaches 50%, which exceeds support and represents the strongest opposition among the groups. This is evident when checking the data: opposition is 20% for the youngest, increasing to 50% for seniors, and no other group has opposition at or above 50%. A distractor like choice C incorrectly claims opposition is highest among young adults, but the data show the opposite, emphasizing the need to verify each claim against the actual percentages. Overall, the data show correlations between age and views but do not prove causation, such as why older groups oppose more.

Question 4

A crosstab shows support for a \15$ minimum wage: nonunion 52% support, union 78% support. Which interpretation is best supported?

  1. Union members are more supportive than nonunion respondents, indicating a sizable group difference in attitudes toward the policy. (correct answer)
  2. Nonunion respondents are far more supportive than union members, showing unions reduce support for higher minimum wages.
  3. Because union support is 78%, union membership causes support, ruling out ideology, income, or occupation as alternative explanations.
  4. Since nonunion support is above 50%, there is no meaningful difference between union and nonunion respondents on this issue.
  5. The data imply most union members oppose the policy, because 78% support is likely an outlier and should be disregarded.

Explanation: This question examines group differences in support for a $15 minimum wage. The data shows union members at 78% support versus nonunion at 52% - a substantial 26-point difference. The correct answer identifies union members as more supportive, indicating a sizable group difference. Option B reverses the actual relationship. Option C incorrectly infers causation from correlation. Option D wrongly claims no meaningful difference despite the 26-point gap. Option E contradicts the data by suggesting most union members oppose when 78% support. When analyzing crosstabs, focus on describing the actual differences shown rather than inferring causation or dismissing clear gaps.

Question 5

A poll reports views on requiring photo ID to vote: White respondents 70% favor, 22% oppose; Black respondents 52/40; Hispanic respondents 58/33. Which conclusion is most supported?

  1. Support is highest among White respondents and lowest among Black respondents, with Hispanic respondents in between on voter ID requirements. (correct answer)
  2. Black respondents are most supportive of photo ID requirements, suggesting the policy is most popular among groups facing the most barriers.
  3. Because White respondents favor the policy, adopting voter ID laws will necessarily increase turnout among White voters in future elections.
  4. All three groups oppose photo ID by a majority, indicating broad public rejection of voter identification requirements.
  5. Hispanic respondents are evenly divided, so their opinions cannot affect overall support for voter ID laws.

Explanation: This question evaluates public opinion data by examining support for photo ID voting requirements across racial groups. The key pattern is highest support among White respondents at 70%, followed by Hispanic at 58%, and lowest among Black at 52%. Choice A is best supported as it correctly ranks the groups and notes the intermediate position of Hispanics. Verification shows 70% > 58% > 52% for favor, with all above 50%. A distractor such as choice D claims all groups oppose by a majority, but opposition is 22%, 33%, and 40%—all below 50%—demonstrating the importance of comparing favor and oppose directly. The data illustrate racial differences but do not prove effects like turnout changes from policy adoption.

Question 6

A survey finds 70% of urban residents support public transit expansion, compared with 49% of rural residents. Which statement is best supported?

  1. Urban respondents are more supportive than rural respondents, indicating place of residence is associated with differing policy preferences here. (correct answer)
  2. Rural respondents are more supportive than urban respondents, demonstrating stronger demand for transit expansion outside cities.
  3. The results prove living in cities causes support for transit, rather than reflecting existing preferences influencing where people live.
  4. Because rural support is 49%, a majority of all Americans oppose transit expansion, regardless of the urban results.
  5. Since urban support is 70%, the policy will receive identical support in every state, including predominantly rural states.

Explanation: This question examines urban-rural differences in transit expansion support. The data shows urban residents at 70% support versus rural residents at 49% - a clear 21-point difference. The correct answer identifies urban respondents as more supportive, noting the association between residence and policy preferences. Option B reverses the actual relationship. Option C incorrectly infers causation from correlation. Option D misinterprets what rural results mean for overall opinion. Option E makes an unsupported claim about state-level uniformity. When analyzing geographic differences, describe the actual patterns shown rather than inferring causation or making predictions about political geography.

Question 7

A survey finds 55% trust local government, 41% trust state government, 33% trust federal government. Which inference is most supported?

  1. Trust is highest for local government and lowest for federal government, suggesting confidence declines as the level of government becomes more distant. (correct answer)
  2. Trust in federal government exceeds trust in local government, implying national institutions are viewed as more responsive than local ones.
  3. Because trust is below 60% at every level, most respondents oppose government action in general across all policy areas.
  4. The results prove that local government performance causes trust, while federal performance cannot influence trust levels.
  5. Since 41% trust state government, a clear majority distrusts all government levels equally, showing no meaningful differences among them.

Explanation: This question tests interpretation of trust levels across different government levels. The data shows 55% trust local government, 41% trust state government, and 33% trust federal government - a clear declining pattern as government becomes more distant from citizens. The correct answer identifies this inverse relationship between proximity and trust. Option B reverses the actual relationship shown in the data. Option C makes an unsupported inference about policy opposition. Option D incorrectly claims causation. Option E misinterprets the meaning of 41% trust in state government. When evaluating comparative data, focus on the actual relationships shown rather than making broader inferences about causation or policy implications.

Question 8

Two polls on a climate policy show support at 58% in Poll 1 (±3) and 54% in Poll 2 (±3). What is most supported?

  1. The difference could reflect sampling error because the polls’ margins of error overlap, so a real change is not clearly established. (correct answer)
  2. Support definitely dropped by exactly four points, proving public opinion shifted downward between the two survey dates.
  3. Because both polls exceed 50%, the policy is guaranteed to pass the Senate, regardless of institutional rules and party incentives.
  4. The second poll must be biased or fraudulent, since it reports a lower number than the first poll on the same issue.
  5. The results show climate policy opinions are unrelated to any other attitudes, since only two polls are needed to confirm stability.

Explanation: This question tests understanding of margins of error in polling. Poll 1 shows 58% ±3 (range: 55-61%) and Poll 2 shows 54% ±3 (range: 51-57%). These ranges overlap at 55-57%, meaning the apparent 4-point difference could be due to sampling error rather than real opinion change. The correct answer recognizes this statistical uncertainty. Option B incorrectly claims a definite 4-point drop. Option C makes an unsupported claim about Senate passage. Option D wrongly suggests fraud. Option E makes an irrelevant claim about attitude relationships. When comparing polls, always consider margins of error - overlapping confidence intervals mean we cannot conclude a real change occurred.

Question 9

A state poll shows support for a school voucher program: parents with children in public schools 46% support; parents with children in private schools 63%. Best interpretation?

  1. Parents with children in private schools are more supportive than parents with children in public schools, indicating a group gap in support. (correct answer)
  2. Parents with children in public schools are more supportive, showing vouchers are most popular among those currently using public education.
  3. Because private-school parents support vouchers at 63%, vouchers will necessarily increase private-school enrollment statewide in the next year.
  4. The data prove that attending private school causes support for vouchers, ruling out income, ideology, or religion as confounding factors.
  5. Since public-school parents are below 50% support, it follows that a majority of all parents oppose vouchers in the state.

Explanation: This question examines differences in school voucher support by school type. The data shows parents with children in private schools at 63% support versus public school parents at 46% - a 17-point gap. The correct answer identifies private school parents as more supportive, indicating a group difference. Option B reverses the actual relationship. Option C makes an unsupported prediction about enrollment changes. Option D incorrectly infers causation from correlation. Option E wrongly generalizes from one subgroup to all parents. When analyzing group differences, focus on describing the actual gaps shown rather than inferring causation or making broader generalizations beyond what the data supports.

Question 10

In a city poll on building more bike lanes, 62% of residents support and 30% oppose. Among commuters who bike at least weekly, 85% support; among non-bikers, 55% support. Which conclusion is best supported?

  1. Support is higher among weekly bikers than non-bikers, but even non-bikers show majority support for adding more bike lanes. (correct answer)
  2. Because bikers support bike lanes, building lanes will cause more residents to start biking at least weekly.
  3. Non-bikers oppose bike lanes by a large majority, explaining why overall support is below 50% citywide.
  4. Weekly bikers are less supportive than non-bikers, suggesting frequent riders may worry about safety or congestion effects.
  5. The data show that exactly 62% of weekly bikers support bike lanes, matching the citywide overall support level.

Explanation: This question tests evaluating public opinion data by comparing support for bike lanes between weekly bikers and non-bikers in a city poll. The data indicate stronger support among weekly bikers at 85% compared to 55% among non-bikers, with overall support at 62%, showing majority backing even from those who do not bike regularly. Choice A is best supported because it accurately notes the higher support among bikers while emphasizing that non-bikers still have majority support at 55%. This is verifiable in the data, where non-bikers' 55% exceeds 50%, contributing to the overall majority. A distractor such as choice C claims non-bikers oppose by a large majority, but the data contradict this with 55% support, underscoring the strategy of cross-checking claims against provided figures. The data illustrate differences in opinion by behavior but do not prove that building lanes would change biking habits or cause other outcomes.

Question 11

A poll asks whether the Supreme Court should have term limits. Democrats: 78% favor, 15% oppose; Independents: 61/27; Republicans: 44/46. Which conclusion is most supported?

  1. Democrats are most supportive, Republicans are least supportive, and Independents fall between them, with Republicans nearly evenly split. (correct answer)
  2. All partisan groups show overwhelming support, so term limits are a rare issue with near-unanimous agreement nationwide.
  3. Republicans are the most supportive group, indicating conservatives strongly favor restructuring the Court more than other voters.
  4. Because Republicans oppose term limits, instituting term limits would necessarily reduce the Court’s legitimacy among Democrats.
  5. Independents oppose term limits by a majority, suggesting most voters without party ties prefer lifetime appointments.

Explanation: This question focuses on evaluating public opinion data by analyzing partisan differences in support for Supreme Court term limits. The data reveal a pattern of decreasing support from Democrats at 78% to Independents at 61% to Republicans at 44%, with Republicans nearly split as 46% oppose. Choice A is the most supported conclusion because it correctly identifies Democrats as most supportive, Republicans as least and evenly divided, and Independents in between, directly matching the percentages. For instance, Republicans' 44% favor versus 46% oppose shows the near split. Choice E, a common distractor, falsely states Independents oppose by a majority, but 27% opposition is far below 61% favor, demonstrating the need to compare favor and oppose figures accurately. While the data show partisan correlations, they do not prove broader agreement or implications for court legitimacy.

Question 12

Which conclusion about gender differences in perceived discrimination is most supported by the poll results?

  1. Men are more likely than women to say discrimination is a major problem, and the difference is large in both parties.
  2. Women are more likely than men to call discrimination a major problem, and the gender gap appears within each party group shown. (correct answer)
  3. Gender has no relationship to views on discrimination, because Democrats and Republicans each show the same percentages for men and women.
  4. The data demonstrate that being female causes people to identify discrimination as a major problem, regardless of any other factors.
  5. Republican women are the most likely subgroup to call discrimination a major problem, exceeding Democratic women by a wide margin.

Explanation: This question tests the skill of interpreting gender differences within partisan subgroups. The key pattern would show women more likely than men to identify discrimination as a major problem, with this gender gap appearing within both Democratic and Republican groups. Answer B correctly identifies this consistent gender difference across parties. Answer A reverses the typical pattern where women perceive more discrimination. Answer C incorrectly claims no gender differences when the data would show clear gaps. Answer D makes an unsupported causal claim that gender alone causes these views. Answer E misidentifies which subgroup shows highest concern when Democratic women would typically exceed Republican women. When analyzing subgroup differences, check patterns within each partisan group separately to see if gender effects persist across party lines.

Question 13

Which interpretation of the polling difference between registered voters and adults is most supported?

  1. Registered voters are more supportive than adults overall, suggesting samples limited to voters can yield different estimates than all adults. (correct answer)
  2. Adults are more supportive than registered voters, indicating registration status increases opposition to the policy.
  3. Support is exactly the same for both groups, demonstrating that sampling frame never affects poll results for policy questions.
  4. The data prove that registering to vote causes higher support, because the registered-voter percentage is higher than the adult percentage.
  5. Registered voters oppose the policy by a majority, meaning the policy is unpopular among the only group that matters electorally.

Explanation: This question tests the skill of comparing results across different sampling frames. The key pattern would show registered voters expressing somewhat higher support than all adults, illustrating how sample composition affects poll results since registered voters differ demographically from non-registered adults. Answer A correctly identifies this sampling frame effect. Answer B reverses the typical pattern where registered voters show different preferences. Answer C incorrectly claims no difference when sampling frames do affect results. Answer D makes an unsupported causal claim about registration causing opinion change. Answer E mischaracterizes the results by claiming majority opposition among registered voters. When comparing polls with different samples, recognize that registered voter samples exclude non-registered adults who may have systematically different views, making direct comparisons informative about sampling effects.

Question 14

Based on the margin-of-error information provided, which comparison is most justified?

  1. A 666-point gap between two groups is clearly significant when each subgroup has a ±5%\pm 5\%±5% margin of error.
  2. A 121212-point gap between two groups is more likely meaningful than a 333-point gap, given the same stated margin of error. (correct answer)
  3. Any difference, even 111 point, must reflect a real population gap because margins of error only apply to national samples.
  4. Margins of error prove one group is lying, because sampling error can only occur when respondents intentionally misreport opinions.
  5. If two estimates overlap within the margin of error, they must be exactly equal in the population with no possible difference.

Explanation: This question assesses understanding of margins of error in comparing subgroups. A 12-point gap between groups is more likely to represent a real difference than a 3-point gap, given the same margin of error, because larger differences are less likely to be due to sampling variation alone. Answer B correctly identifies that larger gaps are more likely meaningful. Answer A incorrectly suggests a 6-point gap is clearly significant with ±5% margins, when overlapping confidence intervals make this uncertain. Answer C wrongly claims any difference must be real, ignoring sampling error. Answer D misunderstands margins of error as related to lying rather than sampling. Answer E overstates the implications of overlapping margins, which indicate uncertainty rather than proving exact equality. Understanding margins of error is crucial for distinguishing meaningful differences from statistical noise.

Question 15

Which interpretation of the relationship between education and voter turnout is best supported by the data?

  1. Turnout increases with education level, with the largest jump occurring between high school and some college in this survey. (correct answer)
  2. Turnout decreases with education, showing that college graduates are least likely to vote in midterm elections.
  3. Education has no association with turnout because each education category reports turnout close to 50% in the same election year.
  4. The data prove that earning a college degree causes higher turnout, since the highest education group reports the highest voting rate.
  5. People with less than high school report the highest turnout, indicating lower-education voters dominate elections numerically.

Explanation: This question tests the skill of analyzing the relationship between education and political participation. The key pattern would show voter turnout increasing with each education level, with notable jumps between education categories, particularly from high school to some college. Answer A correctly identifies this positive relationship between education and turnout. Answer B reverses the well-established pattern where higher education correlates with higher turnout. Answer C incorrectly claims no association when clear differences exist across education levels. Answer D makes an unsupported causal claim when the data only shows correlation. Answer E contradicts decades of voting research by claiming lowest education has highest turnout. When evaluating demographic patterns in turnout, remember that education is one of the strongest predictors, with each level typically showing higher participation than the previous one.

Question 16

Which interpretation of the trend in support for background checks is most supported by the data?

  1. Support rises steadily every year, indicating a continuous increase without any reversals or plateaus across the entire period shown.
  2. Support declines sharply from 2018 to 2024, suggesting voters increasingly oppose background checks as time passes.
  3. Support remains high but fluctuates within a narrow range, suggesting stability rather than a dramatic long-term shift. (correct answer)
  4. The data prove that new federal laws caused support to increase, because the line is higher in later years than earlier years.
  5. Support is consistently below 50%, indicating most Americans oppose background checks throughout the entire period shown.

Explanation: This question tests the skill of analyzing time trends in public opinion polling. The key pattern would show support for background checks remaining consistently high (likely above 80%) with minor fluctuations rather than dramatic changes over time. Answer C correctly identifies this pattern of high but stable support with small variations. Answer A overstates by claiming continuous increases without any reversals. Answer B contradicts the typical pattern where background check support remains high. Answer D makes an unsupported causal claim about federal laws that the data cannot prove. Answer E misrepresents the data by claiming support is below 50% when background checks typically poll above 80%. When interpreting trend data, distinguish between minor fluctuations within a range versus substantial directional changes, and avoid inferring causation from correlation.

Question 17

A poll asks whether the U.S. is on the “right track”: 34% yes, 56% no, 10% unsure. Which conclusion is most supported?

  1. More respondents say “wrong track” than “right track,” indicating overall pessimism, while a notable minority remains unsure. (correct answer)
  2. Most respondents believe the country is on the right track, demonstrating broad optimism about national conditions.
  3. The poll proves that pessimism causes lower economic growth, since national mood and economic performance move together.
  4. Because 10% are unsure, the poll is invalid and cannot be used to describe public opinion about national direction.
  5. Since 34% say right track, it follows that exactly 34% approve of the president, as those attitudes are identical.

Explanation: This question tests interpretation of right track/wrong track polling. The data shows 34% right track, 56% wrong track, and 10% unsure - indicating more pessimism than optimism with a notable undecided group. The correct answer accurately describes this distribution showing overall pessimism. Option B contradicts the data by claiming most say right track. Option C incorrectly infers economic causation. Option D wrongly dismisses valid polling due to unsure responses. Option E makes an unsupported claim linking directional assessment to presidential approval. When evaluating opinion distributions, describe what the numbers actually show rather than making causal inferences or assuming attitude linkages.

Question 18

A survey finds 70% of urban residents support public transit expansion, compared with 49% of rural residents. Which statement is best supported?​

  1. Urban respondents are more supportive than rural respondents, indicating place of residence is associated with differing policy preferences here. (correct answer)
  2. Rural respondents are more supportive than urban respondents, demonstrating stronger demand for transit expansion outside cities.
  3. The results prove living in cities causes support for transit, rather than reflecting existing preferences influencing where people live.
  4. Because rural support is 49%, a majority of all Americans oppose transit expansion, regardless of the urban results.
  5. Since urban support is 70%, the policy will receive identical support in every state, including predominantly rural states.

Explanation: This question examines urban-rural differences in transit expansion support. The data shows urban residents at 70% support versus rural residents at 49% - a clear 21-point difference. The correct answer identifies urban respondents as more supportive, noting the association between residence and policy preferences. Option B reverses the actual relationship. Option C incorrectly infers causation from correlation. Option D misinterprets what rural results mean for overall opinion. Option E makes an unsupported claim about state-level uniformity. When analyzing geographic differences, describe the actual patterns shown rather than inferring causation or making predictions about political geography.

Question 19

A crosstab shows support for a \15$ minimum wage: nonunion 52% support, union 78% support. Which interpretation is best supported?​

  1. Union members are more supportive than nonunion respondents, indicating a sizable group difference in attitudes toward the policy. (correct answer)
  2. Nonunion respondents are far more supportive than union members, showing unions reduce support for higher minimum wages.
  3. Because union support is 78%, union membership causes support, ruling out ideology, income, or occupation as alternative explanations.
  4. Since nonunion support is above 50%, there is no meaningful difference between union and nonunion respondents on this issue.
  5. The data imply most union members oppose the policy, because 78% support is likely an outlier and should be disregarded.

Explanation: This question examines group differences in support for a $15 minimum wage. The data shows union members at 78% support versus nonunion at 52% - a substantial 26-point difference. The correct answer identifies union members as more supportive, indicating a sizable group difference. Option B reverses the actual relationship. Option C incorrectly infers causation from correlation. Option D wrongly claims no meaningful difference despite the 26-point gap. Option E contradicts the data by suggesting most union members oppose when 78% support. When analyzing crosstabs, focus on describing the actual differences shown rather than inferring causation or dismissing clear gaps.

Question 20

A national poll shows 62% support background checks; by party: Democrats 86%, Independents 64%, Republicans 38%. Which conclusion is best supported?​

  1. Support is highest among Republicans, suggesting partisan differences are minimal and the issue is broadly bipartisan at similar levels.
  2. Democrats show substantially higher support than Republicans, indicating large partisan polarization on background checks in this poll. (correct answer)
  3. Because independents are at 64%, background checks will certainly pass Congress regardless of party control or institutional barriers.
  4. The poll proves party identification causes people to support background checks, rather than reflecting correlated attitudes or selection effects.
  5. Overall support must be below 50% because Republicans oppose background checks, meaning national opinion is likely against the policy.

Explanation: This question tests your ability to evaluate public opinion data about partisan differences on background checks. The data shows Democrats at 86%, Independents at 64%, and Republicans at 38% support. The correct answer identifies the large partisan gap, with Democrats showing substantially higher support (48 percentage points higher) than Republicans. Option A incorrectly claims Republicans have highest support and minimal differences exist. Option C makes an unsupported causal claim about Congressional passage. Option D incorrectly asserts causation from correlation. Option E contradicts the given overall support of 62%. When evaluating polling data, focus on what the numbers actually show rather than making causal inferences or predictions about political outcomes.