Statistics Graduate Level Quiz: Neyman Pearson Lemma
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Neyman Pearson LemmaQuestion 1 of 10

A single observation has distribution N(0,1)N(0,1) under H0H_0 and distribution N(1,4)N(1,4) under H1H_1. For a fixed significance level 0<α<10<\alpha<1, which form must a Neyman–Pearson most powerful test have, up to possible randomization on its boundary?

Reject when X+1/3>dα\lvert X+1/3\rvert>d_\alpha for a constant dαd_\alpha chosen to attain size α\alpha.
Reject when X>dαX>d_\alpha because the mean under H1H_1 is larger than the mean under H0H_0.
Reject when X1>dα\lvert X-1\rvert>d_\alpha because deviations from the alternative mean favor the larger variance.
Reject when X<dαX<d_\alpha because sufficiently negative observations are more probable under the larger-variance alternative.
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Statistics Graduate Level Quiz

Statistics Graduate Level Quiz: Neyman Pearson Lemma

Practice Neyman Pearson Lemma in Statistics Graduate Level with focused quiz questions that help you check what you know, review explanations, and build confidence with test-style prompts.

What this quiz covers

This quiz focuses on Neyman Pearson Lemma, giving you a quick way to practice the rules, question types, and explanations that matter most for Statistics Graduate Level.

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Try each quiz question before looking at the correct answer. Use the explanations to review missed ideas, then come back to similar questions until the pattern feels familiar.

All questions

Question 1

A single observation has distribution N(0,1)N(0,1) under H0H_0 and distribution N(1,4)N(1,4) under H1H_1. For a fixed significance level 0<α<10<\alpha<1, which form must a Neyman–Pearson most powerful test have, up to possible randomization on its boundary?

  1. Reject when X+1/3>dα\lvert X+1/3\rvert>d_\alpha for a constant dαd_\alpha chosen to attain size α\alpha. (correct answer)
  2. Reject when X>dαX>d_\alpha because the mean under H1H_1 is larger than the mean under H0H_0.
  3. Reject when X1>dα\lvert X-1\rvert>d_\alpha because deviations from the alternative mean favor the larger variance.
  4. Reject when X<dαX<d_\alpha because sufficiently negative observations are more probable under the larger-variance alternative.
Explanation: Whenever you see a Neyman–Pearson most powerful test question, your first move should always be to write out the likelihood ratio and simplify — don't let intuition about means or variances substitute for algebra. Here, f0(x)=12πex2/2f_0(x) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2} and f1(x)=12π2e(x1)2/8f_1(x) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}\cdot 2}e^{-(x-1)^2/8}. The Neyman–Pearson lemma says to reject when the likelihood ratio Λ(x)=f1(x)/f0(x)\Lambda(x) = f_1(x)/f_0(x) exceeds a threshold. Taking the log and keeping only terms involving xx: logΛ(x)(x1)28+x22=3x2+2x18=(3x1)(x+1)8.\log \Lambda(x) \propto -\frac{(x-1)^2}{8} + \frac{x^2}{2} = \frac{3x^2 + 2x - 1}{8} = \frac{(3x-1)(x+1)}{8}. Rejecting when logΛ(x)>k\log \Lambda(x) > k means rejecting when 3x2+2x1>c3x^2 + 2x - 1 > c, i.e., 3(x+1/3)2>c3(x + 1/3)^2 > c', which simplifies to x+1/3>dα|x + 1/3| > d_\alpha. This is exactly answer A — a two-sided rejection region centered at 1/3-1/3, not at either distribution's mean. Answer B is wrong because simply comparing means ignores the variance difference; the larger variance under H1H_1 creates probability mass in both tails. Answer D captures the intuition that large negative values favor the alternative, but it's only a one-sided rule — it misses the upper tail, where the large variance also inflates f1f_1. Answer C uses the wrong center (1 instead of 1/3-1/3), reflecting a misunderstanding of where the likelihood ratio tips in favor of H1H_1. The key study tip: always derive the rejection region from the likelihood ratio algebra. Intuition about means or variances alone will lead you astray when the two hypotheses differ in both parameters simultaneously.

Question 2

Let X1,,XnX_1,\ldots,X_n be independent N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2) observations, where σ2\sigma^2 is unknown. A researcher claims that the Neyman–Pearson lemma directly proves that the usual one-sided Student test is most powerful for testing H0:μ=0H_0:\mu=0 against H1:μ=δH_1:\mu=\delta, where δ>0\delta>0 is fixed. Which assessment is most accurate?

  1. The claim is correct because fixing 00 and δ\delta makes both hypotheses simple despite the unknown variance.
  2. The claim is incorrect only when nn is small; asymptotic normality makes the hypotheses simple for sufficiently large nn.
  3. The claim is correct because replacing σ\sigma by the sample standard deviation leaves the likelihood ratio unchanged.
  4. The claim is incorrect because the unknown variance makes each hypothesis composite, so additional invariance or conditioning arguments are required. (correct answer)
Explanation: Whenever you see the Neyman–Pearson (NP) lemma invoked, your first instinct should be to check whether both hypotheses are truly simple — that is, whether each hypothesis specifies a single, fully determined probability distribution. The NP lemma guarantees a most powerful test only in that setting. Here, even though μ\mu is fixed under both H0H_0 and H1H_1, the variance σ2\sigma^2 is unknown and unspecified. This means each hypothesis actually represents an entire family of distributions indexed by σ2(0,)\sigma^2 \in (0,\infty), making both hypotheses composite. The NP lemma simply does not apply directly. To establish that the one-sided tt-test is most powerful, you need additional arguments — specifically, you appeal to invariance (the problem is invariant under scale transformations) and a conditional argument (conditioning on a sufficient statistic for σ2\sigma^2, namely S2S^2), which together show the tt-test is uniformly most powerful among scale-invariant tests. D is therefore correct: the unknown variance creates composite hypotheses, and extra structure beyond the NP lemma is needed. A is wrong because fixing μ\mu under both hypotheses does not make them simple — σ2\sigma^2 remains free, so infinitely many distributions are compatible with each hypothesis. B is wrong because asymptotic normality approximates the distribution of Xˉ\bar{X}, but σ2\sigma^2 remains unknown even asymptotically; this does not convert composite hypotheses into simple ones. C is wrong because substituting SS for σ\sigma fundamentally changes the likelihood ratio statistic — it is no longer a pure likelihood ratio, and the NP lemma's conclusion does not transfer automatically. A good study rule: before citing the NP lemma, always verify that both hypotheses are fully specified (simple). Any free nuisance parameter immediately makes the lemma inapplicable.

Question 3

For simple hypotheses with densities f0f_0 and f1f_1, let L=f1/f0L=f_1/f_0. A level-α\alpha Neyman–Pearson test ϕ\phi^* rejects when L>kL>k. Assume P0(L=k)=0P_0(L=k)=0. Another test ϕ\phi has exact size α\alpha and differs from ϕ\phi^* on a set having positive P0P_0 probability. What follows?

  1. The two tests have equal power because they have the same exact type I error probability.
  2. The test ϕ\phi has strictly smaller power because no positive-probability likelihood-ratio boundary can account for the difference. (correct answer)
  3. The test ϕ\phi can have greater power if it rejects more frequently where f0f_0 is relatively large.
  4. Only weak power ordering follows unless P1(L=k)=0P_1(L=k)=0 is separately assumed under the alternative.
Explanation: Whenever you see a question invoking the Neyman–Pearson Lemma, anchor your thinking to its optimality guarantee: among all level-α\alpha tests, the likelihood-ratio test ϕ\phi^* uniquely maximizes power under P1P_1. The key result is the Neyman–Pearson inequality. For any competing test ϕ\phi with E0[ϕ]α=E0[ϕ]E_0[\phi] \leq \alpha = E_0[\phi^*], we have: E1[ϕ]E1[ϕ]k(E0[ϕ]E0[ϕ])E_1[\phi^*] - E_1[\phi] \geq k\bigl(E_0[\phi^*] - E_0[\phi]\bigr) This follows because (ϕϕ)(f1kf0)0(\phi^* - \phi)(f_1 - kf_0) \geq 0 pointwise — ϕ\phi^* rejects exactly when f1>kf0f_1 > kf_0. Since both tests have equal size (E0[ϕ]=E0[ϕ]=αE_0[\phi^*] = E_0[\phi] = \alpha), the right side is zero, giving E1[ϕ]E1[ϕ]E_1[\phi^*] \geq E_1[\phi]. Now, since ϕ\phi differs from ϕ\phi^* on a positive-P0P_0 set and P0(L=k)=0P_0(L=k)=0, that difference must occur where LkL \neq k, meaning the pointwise inequality (ϕϕ)(f1kf0)0(\phi^* - \phi)(f_1 - kf_0) \geq 0 is strict on a positive-measure set. With k>0k > 0, this forces E1[ϕ]>E1[ϕ]E_1[\phi^*] > E_1[\phi] strictly, confirming B. A is wrong because equal size does not imply equal power — that confuses a necessary condition with a sufficient one. C is the critical trap: if ϕ\phi rejects more where f0f_0 is large (i.e., where LL is small), it wastes its size budget in a region that contributes little under P1P_1, strictly reducing power. D is a red herring; the assumption P0(L=k)=0P_0(L=k)=0 already ensures no boundary mass matters under P0P_0, and the strict inequality follows without any separate condition on $$P_1$. Study tip: Always remember that the NP Lemma gives a strict power ranking when the competing test genuinely differs from the LRT — "same size" never rescues a suboptimal rejection region.

Question 4

Independent Bernoulli trials are observed until the first success or until three trials have been observed. Thus, the possible stopped paths are 1,01,001,0001,01,001,000. For testing H0:p=0.2H_0:p=0.2 against H1:p=0.5H_1:p=0.5, which ordering lists the paths from largest to smallest likelihood ratio?

  1. 1,01,000,0011,01,000,001, because three failures are stronger evidence than a delayed success.
  2. 001,01,1,000001,01,1,000, because longer paths contain more information in favor of the alternative.
  3. 1,01,001,0001,01,001,000, because each additional observed failure decreases the likelihood ratio. (correct answer)
  4. 000,001,01,1000,001,01,1, because the alternative assigns greater probability to every stopped path.
Explanation: When comparing two simple hypotheses, the likelihood ratio (LR) is your primary tool for ordering evidence. For each stopped path, compute Λ=L(p=0.5)L(p=0.2)\Lambda = \frac{L(p=0.5)}{L(p=0.2)} and rank accordingly. Each path has probability ps(1p)fp^s(1-p)^f, where s{0,1}s \in \{0,1\} is the number of successes and ff is the number of failures observed. So the likelihood ratio for a path with one success and ff failures is (0.5)(0.5)f(0.2)(0.8)f=0.50.2(0.50.8)f=2.5(0.625)f\frac{(0.5)(0.5)^f}{(0.2)(0.8)^f} = \frac{0.5}{0.2}\left(\frac{0.5}{0.8}\right)^f = 2.5 \cdot (0.625)^f. For the all-failure path 000000: (0.5)3(0.8)3=0.1250.5120.244\frac{(0.5)^3}{(0.8)^3} = \frac{0.125}{0.512} \approx 0.244. Now compute each:
  • Path 11 (f=0f=0): 2.51=2.52.5 \cdot 1 = 2.5
  • Path 0101 (f=1f=1): 2.50.625=1.56252.5 \cdot 0.625 = 1.5625
  • Path 001001 (f=2f=2): 2.50.3910.9772.5 \cdot 0.391 \approx 0.977
  • Path 000000 (no success): 0.244\approx 0.244
This gives the decreasing order 1,01,001,0001, 01, 001, 000, confirming C. Each additional failure before a success multiplies the LR by 0.625<10.625 < 1, steadily reducing it, and the pure-failure path has the smallest LR of all. Choice A incorrectly claims 000000 beats 001001, but three consecutive failures actually favor H0H_0 (LR < 1). Choice B inverts the ordering entirely with faulty intuition about "information." Choice D incorrectly asserts the alternative dominates on every path — 000000 and 001001 actually favor H0H_0. Study tip: Always compute LRs explicitly rather than relying on intuition about "more data = more evidence for H1H_1." The direction of evidence depends critically on what was observed, not just how much.

Question 5

A single observation is used to test H0:XUniform(0,1)H_0:X\sim\operatorname{Uniform}(0,1) against H1:XUniform(0,2)H_1:X\sim\operatorname{Uniform}(0,2). Which description gives a Neyman–Pearson test of exact level α\alpha and correctly states its power?

  1. Reject on any interval of length α\alpha inside [0,1][0,1] and never reject when X>1X>1, because the alternative also has positive density there; the power equals α/2\alpha/2.
  2. Reject only when X>1X>1, since this region already satisfies the level constraint; the power equals 1/21/2 for all values of α\alpha.
  3. Reject whenever X>1X>1 and also reject on a subset of [0,1][0,1] of null probability α\alpha; the power equals (1+α)/2(1+\alpha)/2. (correct answer)
  4. Reject whenever X>1αX>1-\alpha, using the upper tail of the null distribution to set the critical value; the power equals α/2\alpha/2.
Explanation: When applying the Neyman–Pearson Lemma, your goal is to find the most powerful test at a fixed level α\alpha by comparing likelihood ratios. Here, the likelihood ratio is f1(x)/f0(x)f_1(x)/f_0(x), where f0(x)=1f_0(x) = 1 on [0,1][0,1] and f1(x)=1/2f_1(x) = 1/2 on [0,2][0,2]. This ratio equals 1/21/2 for x[0,1]x \in [0,1] and is undefined (infinity, practically) for x(1,2]x \in (1,2] since f0=0f_0 = 0 there. The NP test rejects where the likelihood ratio is largest — so you must always reject when X>1X > 1, because f0=0f_0 = 0 there and the ratio is effectively infinite. That region alone has null probability zero, so it contributes nothing to your level. To reach exact level α\alpha, you supplement by also rejecting on some subset of [0,1][0,1] with null probability exactly α\alpha. The total power is then P1(X>1)+P1(subset of [0,1])=12+α2=1+α2P_1(X > 1) + P_1(\text{subset of } [0,1]) = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{\alpha}{2} = \frac{1+\alpha}{2}, confirming C is correct. Choice A is wrong because it ignores the region X>1X > 1, which has infinite likelihood ratio and must be included in any most-powerful test. Choice B gets the rejection region right for the X>1X > 1 part but fails to add the supplementary region needed for exact level α\alpha, and incorrectly claims the power is always 1/21/2 regardless of α\alpha. Choice D uses only a tail interval of the null distribution without accounting for the non-overlap region (1,2](1,2], yielding power α/2\alpha/2 — far from optimal. A key study tip: always check where f0=0f_0 = 0 but f1>0f_1 > 0. Those points have infinite likelihood ratio and belong in every NP rejection region before you even touch the level constraint.

Question 6

Suppose X1,,XnX_1,\ldots,X_n are independent Poisson(λ)\operatorname{Poisson}(\lambda) variables. A test rejects H0:λ=λ0H_0:\lambda=\lambda_0 for sufficiently large values of T=i=1nXiT=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i, with boundary randomization if needed to obtain level α\alpha. Which statement best explains why this test is uniformly most powerful against H1:λ>λ0H_1:\lambda>\lambda_0?

  1. The Neyman–Pearson lemma directly applies because the alternative λ>λ0\lambda>\lambda_0 is itself a simple hypothesis.
  2. For every fixed λ1>λ0\lambda_1>\lambda_0, the likelihood ratio is increasing in the same statistic TT, so the same level-α\alpha test is most powerful. (correct answer)
  3. The statistic TT is sufficient for λ\lambda, and sufficiency alone implies that every test based on TT is uniformly most powerful.
  4. The Poisson family has increasing variance, so large values of TT must yield a uniformly most powerful test without using likelihood ratios.
Explanation: When you see a question about uniformly most powerful (UMP) tests with a one-sided composite alternative, your first instinct should be the Karlin-Rubin theorem, which extends the Neyman–Pearson lemma beyond simple hypotheses. Here's the core logic: For Poisson(λ)(\lambda), the likelihood ratio for any simple alternative λ1>λ0\lambda_1 > \lambda_0 is L(λ1)L(λ0)=en(λ1λ0)(λ1λ0)T,\frac{L(\lambda_1)}{L(\lambda_0)} = e^{-n(\lambda_1-\lambda_0)}\left(\frac{\lambda_1}{\lambda_0}\right)^T, which is strictly increasing in T=XiT = \sum X_i. This means the most powerful level-α\alpha test against any fixed λ1>λ0\lambda_1 > \lambda_0 always rejects for large TT, with the same critical region regardless of which λ1\lambda_1 you choose. Because a single test simultaneously achieves maximum power against every point in H1H_1, it is uniformly most powerful. That's exactly what B captures. A is wrong because H1:λ>λ0H_1: \lambda > \lambda_0 is a composite (not simple) hypothesis — the Neyman–Pearson lemma alone only handles simple-vs-simple comparisons and cannot directly deliver UMP results. C is wrong because sufficiency is necessary but not sufficient for UMP status. Many sufficient statistics exist for families that admit no UMP test (e.g., two-sided alternatives). Sufficiency alone proves nothing about optimality. D is wrong and frankly a red herring — increasing variance is a property of the Poisson family but has no logical connection to the UMP criterion. Power optimality comes from likelihood ratio structure, not moment properties. Study tip: Whenever a question asks why a one-sided test is UMP, look for the monotone likelihood ratio (MLR) property — it's the engine behind Karlin-Rubin and the correct framing for these problems.

Question 7

Let X1,,X5X_1,\ldots,X_5 be independent normal variables with known mean 00. Consider testing H0:σ2=1H_0:\sigma^2=1 against H1:σ2=4H_1:\sigma^2=4. If q5,1αq_{5,1-\alpha} is the upper α\alpha critical value of a chi-square distribution with 55 degrees of freedom, which test and power are prescribed by the Neyman–Pearson lemma?

  1. Reject when Xi2>q5,1α\sum X_i^2>q_{5,1-\alpha}; the power is 1Fχ52(q5,1α/4)1-F_{\chi^2_5}(q_{5,1-\alpha}/4). (correct answer)
  2. Reject when Xi2<q5,α\sum X_i^2<q_{5,\alpha}; the power is Fχ52(4q5,α)F_{\chi^2_5}(4q_{5,\alpha}).
  3. Reject when Xi>q5,1α\left\lvert\sum X_i\right\rvert>q_{5,1-\alpha}; the power is 1Fχ52(q5,1α/4)1-F_{\chi^2_5}(q_{5,1-\alpha}/4).
  4. Reject when Xi2>4q5,1α\sum X_i^2>4q_{5,1-\alpha}; the power is 1Fχ52(q5,1α)1-F_{\chi^2_5}(q_{5,1-\alpha}).
Explanation: When you see a question about testing variance with normal data, your first instinct should be the Neyman–Pearson lemma: form the likelihood ratio and find what statistic it reduces to. Here, with XiN(0,σ2)X_i \sim N(0, \sigma^2), the likelihood ratio is: L(σ2=4)L(σ2=1)=(14)5/2exp ⁣(Xi22(141))=Cexp ⁣(3Xi28)\frac{L(\sigma^2=4)}{L(\sigma^2=1)} = \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^{5/2} \exp\!\left(-\frac{\sum X_i^2}{2}\cdot\left(\frac{1}{4}-1\right)\right) = C \cdot \exp\!\left(\frac{3\sum X_i^2}{8}\right) This is increasing in Xi2\sum X_i^2, so the NP lemma says: reject when Xi2\sum X_i^2 is large. Under H0H_0, Xi2χ52\sum X_i^2 \sim \chi^2_5, so the size-α\alpha cutoff is q5,1αq_{5,1-\alpha}. Under H1H_1, Xi2/4χ52\sum X_i^2/4 \sim \chi^2_5, so power is P(Xi2>q5,1ασ2=4)=1Fχ52(q5,1α/4)P(\sum X_i^2 > q_{5,1-\alpha} \mid \sigma^2=4) = 1 - F_{\chi^2_5}(q_{5,1-\alpha}/4). This is exactly answer A. B rejects for small values of Xi2\sum X_i^2, which would be appropriate if H1H_1 specified a smaller variance — the inequality is backwards for σ2=4>1\sigma^2=4>1. C uses Xi|\sum X_i| instead of Xi2\sum X_i^2. Since the mean is known to be zero, the sufficient statistic for σ2\sigma^2 is Xi2\sum X_i^2, not the sample sum; this reflects a confusion between testing the mean and testing the variance. D scales the rejection threshold by 4 (using 4q5,1α4q_{5,1-\alpha}), which would correspond to computing the critical value under H1H_1 rather than H0H_0 — that's not how size is controlled. Strategy tip: Always derive the NP rejection region from the likelihood ratio first, then separately compute the critical value under H0H_0 (for size) and evaluate the probability under H1H_1 (for power) — keep those two steps distinct.

Question 8

A sample space consists of outcomes u,v,wu,v,w. Their probabilities under H0H_0 are 0.5,0.3,0.20.5,0.3,0.2, and their likelihood ratios f1/f0f_1/f_0 are 0.4,1,2.50.4,1,2.5, respectively. A proposed level-0.300.30 test rejects only when vv occurs. Which modification gives a most powerful level-0.300.30 test?

  1. Reject with probability 3/53/5 whenever uu occurs and never reject at vv or ww.
  2. Reject whenever ww occurs and reject with probability 1/51/5 whenever uu occurs.
  3. Reject whenever vv occurs because it alone uses the full available type I error probability.
  4. Reject whenever ww occurs and reject with probability 1/31/3 whenever vv occurs. (correct answer)
Explanation: When you see a question invoking the Neyman-Pearson lemma, your instinct should be: rank outcomes by their likelihood ratio Λ=f1/f0\Lambda = f_1/f_0, then reject starting from the highest ratio downward until you've exhausted the level α\alpha. Here the likelihood ratios are: w:2.5w: 2.5, v:1.0v: 1.0, u:0.4u: 0.4. The most powerful level-0.30 test must prioritize rejecting ww first (highest Λ\Lambda), then move to vv if budget remains, and use uu last (lowest Λ\Lambda). Rejecting ww always uses P0(w)=0.2P_0(w) = 0.2 of your size budget, leaving 0.100.10 remaining. Since P0(v)=0.3>0.10P_0(v) = 0.3 > 0.10, you can't fully reject at vv, so you randomize: reject vv with probability γ\gamma where 0.3γ=0.100.3\gamma = 0.10, giving γ=1/3\gamma = 1/3. This is exactly answer D — reject whenever ww occurs and reject vv with probability 1/31/3. Answer A fails because it rejects at uu, which has the lowest likelihood ratio (0.4 < 1). Using your type I error budget on the least powerful outcome is the opposite of what the lemma prescribes. Answer B also rejects uu (with probability 1/51/5) alongside ww, wasting power on the weakest outcome instead of vv. Answer C is the original flawed test — rejecting only vv ignores ww, which has a strictly higher likelihood ratio and should be rejected first. Study tip: Always sort outcomes by Λ\Lambda descending before building your rejection region. Fill your α\alpha budget greedily from the top — randomize only at the threshold outcome where the budget runs out.

Question 9

An observation takes values a,b,ca,b,c. Under H0H_0, their probabilities are 0.2,0.3,0.50.2,0.3,0.5, respectively; under H1H_1, their probabilities are 0.4,0.6,00.4,0.6,0. Let ϕj\phi_j denote the probability of rejection when outcome jj occurs. Which statement correctly characterizes the level-0.250.25 most powerful tests?

  1. The unique test has ϕa=1\phi_a=1, ϕb=1/6\phi_b=1/6, and ϕc=0\phi_c=0, with power 0.500.50.
  2. Any test satisfying 0.2ϕa+0.3ϕb=0.250.2\phi_a+0.3\phi_b=0.25 and ϕc=0\phi_c=0 is most powerful, with power 0.500.50. (correct answer)
  3. Any test satisfying 0.4ϕa+0.6ϕb=0.250.4\phi_a+0.6\phi_b=0.25 and ϕc=0\phi_c=0 is most powerful, with power 0.250.25.
  4. The unique test has ϕa=0\phi_a=0, ϕb=0\phi_b=0, and ϕc=1/2\phi_c=1/2, with power 00.
Explanation: When you see a hypothesis testing problem like this, your first instinct should be the Neyman-Pearson lemma: reject when the likelihood ratio Λ(x)=p1(x)/p0(x)\Lambda(x) = p_1(x)/p_0(x) is large, and never reject where Λ=0\Lambda = 0. Compute the likelihood ratios: Λ(a)=0.4/0.2=2\Lambda(a) = 0.4/0.2 = 2, Λ(b)=0.6/0.3=2\Lambda(b) = 0.6/0.3 = 2, Λ(c)=0/0.5=0\Lambda(c) = 0/0.5 = 0. Since Λ(c)=0\Lambda(c) = 0, outcome cc should never cause rejection — so ϕc=0\phi_c = 0 in any most powerful test. Outcomes aa and bb have equal likelihood ratios, which means the Neyman-Pearson critical region is not unique at this boundary. Any randomized test that sets ϕc=0\phi_c = 0 and satisfies the level constraint 0.2ϕa+0.3ϕb=0.250.2\phi_a + 0.3\phi_b = 0.25 (keeping ϕa,ϕb[0,1]\phi_a, \phi_b \in [0,1]) is most powerful. The power of any such test is 0.4ϕa+0.6ϕb0.4\phi_a + 0.6\phi_b. Substituting ϕb=(0.250.2ϕa)/0.3\phi_b = (0.25 - 0.2\phi_a)/0.3 and simplifying confirms the power is always 0.500.50, regardless of which valid (ϕa,ϕb)(\phi_a, \phi_b) pair you choose. This confirms B is correct. A is wrong because it identifies one valid solution (ϕa=1,ϕb=1/6\phi_a=1, \phi_b=1/6) but falsely claims uniqueness — the equal likelihood ratios mean infinitely many tests achieve the same power. C confuses the power equation with the size constraint and states an incorrect power of 0.250.25. D rejects only on cc, where the likelihood ratio is zero — exactly backwards from what NP dictates. The key study tip: when two outcomes share the same likelihood ratio at the boundary, the MP test is non-unique — any mixture satisfying the size constraint is equally optimal.

Question 10

Let XBinomial(2,p)X\sim\operatorname{Binomial}(2,p). Consider testing H0:p=1/2H_0:p=1/2 against H1:p=3/4H_1:p=3/4 at exact level α=0.20\alpha=0.20. What is the Neyman–Pearson most powerful test, and what is its power?

  1. Reject with probability 0.800.80 when X=2X=2; the resulting power is 0.450.45. (correct answer)
  2. Reject whenever X=2X=2; the resulting size is 0.250.25 and the power is 0.56250.5625.
  3. Reject with probability 0.200.20 when X=2X=2; the resulting power is 0.11250.1125.
  4. Reject when X=2X=2 and randomize when X=1X=1; the resulting power is 0.600.60.
Explanation: When you encounter a Neyman–Pearson (NP) testing problem, your first move should always be to compute the likelihood ratio and identify the critical region — then check whether a randomized test is needed to hit the exact level. Here, XBinomial(2,p)X \sim \text{Binomial}(2, p), so the possible values are X{0,1,2}X \in \{0, 1, 2\}. Under H0:p=1/2H_0: p=1/2, the probabilities are P(X=0)=0.25P(X=0)=0.25, P(X=1)=0.50P(X=1)=0.50, P(X=2)=0.25P(X=2)=0.25. Under H1:p=3/4H_1: p=3/4: P(X=0)=0.0625P(X=0)=0.0625, P(X=1)=0.375P(X=1)=0.375, P(X=2)=0.5625P(X=2)=0.5625. The likelihood ratio is largest at X=2X=2, so the NP test rejects for large XX. Since P0(X=2)=0.25>0.20P_0(X=2)=0.25 > 0.20, rejecting only when X=2X=2 would give size 0.25, exceeding our budget. We cannot simply include X=2X=2 in the rejection region. Instead, we randomize: reject with probability γ\gamma when X=2X=2 such that γ0.25=0.20\gamma \cdot 0.25 = 0.20, giving γ=0.80\gamma = 0.80. The power at p=3/4p=3/4 is 0.80×P1(X=2)=0.80×0.5625=0.450.80 \times P_1(X=2) = 0.80 \times 0.5625 = 0.45. That confirms A is correct. Choice B incorrectly rejects deterministically at X=2X=2, producing size 0.25, which violates the α=0.20\alpha=0.20 constraint. Choice C randomizes with γ=0.20\gamma=0.20, which satisfies α\alpha but is far too conservative — you've wasted power by under-rejecting. Choice D introduces X=1X=1 into the rejection region without justification; the likelihood ratio at X=1X=1 is smaller than at X=2X=2, so NP theory says you'd never include X=1X=1 before fully exhausting X=2X=2. Study tip: Whenever the exact size constraint can't be met by a deterministic test, always randomize only on the boundary point — compute γ=(αP0(interior region))/P0(boundary)\gamma = (\alpha - P_0(\text{interior region})) / P_0(\text{boundary}) and apply it exclusively there.