Statistics Graduate Level Quiz: Linear Regression In Matrix Form
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Linear Regression In Matrix FormQuestion 1 of 9

A full-column-rank design matrix XX is used to regress yy by ordinary least squares. Let MX=IX(XX)1XM_X=I-X(X^\top X)^{-1}X^\top, and suppose the current residual vector r=MXyr=M_Xy satisfies rr=20r^\top r=20. A new predictor zz is added, where zMXz=5z^\top M_Xz=5 and zr=6z^\top r=6. What is the residual sum of squares for the augmented model?

88, obtained by subtracting zr+zMXzz^\top r+z^\top M_Xz from the original sum of squares.
1414, obtained by subtracting the squared residual-predictor inner product divided by zrz^\top r.
645\frac{64}{5}, obtained by subtracting (zr)2zMXz\frac{(z^\top r)^2}{z^\top M_Xz} from the original sum of squares.
765\frac{76}{5}, obtained by subtracting zMXz(zr)2\frac{z^\top M_Xz}{(z^\top r)^2} after rescaling the predictor.
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Statistics Graduate Level Quiz

Statistics Graduate Level Quiz: Linear Regression In Matrix Form

Practice Linear Regression In Matrix Form in Statistics Graduate Level with focused quiz questions that help you check what you know, review explanations, and build confidence with test-style prompts.

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This quiz focuses on Linear Regression In Matrix Form, giving you a quick way to practice the rules, question types, and explanations that matter most for Statistics Graduate Level.

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Question 1

A full-column-rank design matrix XX is used to regress yy by ordinary least squares. Let MX=IX(XX)1XM_X=I-X(X^\top X)^{-1}X^\top, and suppose the current residual vector r=MXyr=M_Xy satisfies rr=20r^\top r=20. A new predictor zz is added, where zMXz=5z^\top M_Xz=5 and zr=6z^\top r=6. What is the residual sum of squares for the augmented model?

  1. 88, obtained by subtracting zr+zMXzz^\top r+z^\top M_Xz from the original sum of squares.
  2. 1414, obtained by subtracting the squared residual-predictor inner product divided by zrz^\top r.
  3. 645\frac{64}{5}, obtained by subtracting (zr)2zMXz\frac{(z^\top r)^2}{z^\top M_Xz} from the original sum of squares. (correct answer)
  4. 765\frac{76}{5}, obtained by subtracting zMXz(zr)2\frac{z^\top M_Xz}{(z^\top r)^2} after rescaling the predictor.
Explanation: When you add a predictor to an OLS model, the new residual sum of squares drops by a precise, computable amount. The key formula comes from the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem: the reduction in RSS when adding zz to a model already containing XX equals the squared correlation between zz's residual (after projecting out XX) and yy's residual, scaled appropriately. Specifically, the new RSS is: RSSnew=rr(zr)2zMXz\text{RSS}_{\text{new}} = r^\top r - \frac{(z^\top r)^2}{z^\top M_X z} Here, MXzM_X z is the part of zz orthogonal to the column space of XX, and zr=zMXyz^\top r = z^\top M_X y (since r=MXyr = M_X y and MXM_X is idempotent). The reduction term is the OLS coefficient of MXyM_X y on MXzM_X z, squared and multiplied by zMXzz^\top M_X z — exactly one degree-of-freedom improvement. Plugging in: 20625=20365=64520 - \frac{6^2}{5} = 20 - \frac{36}{5} = \frac{64}{5}. This confirms C is correct. A is wrong because it subtracts zr+zMXz=11z^\top r + z^\top M_X z = 11, which has no geometric or algebraic justification — it simply adds unrelated quantities. B inverts the correct formula, dividing by zrz^\top r instead of zMXzz^\top M_X z, conflating the numerator and denominator roles. D flips the fraction entirely, using zMXz(zr)2\frac{z^\top M_X z}{(z^\top r)^2}, which is dimensionally inconsistent and shrinks RSS by a negligible amount. As a study strategy, memorize the added-variable reduction formula (zr)2zMXz\frac{(z^\top r)^2}{z^\top M_X z}. On graduate exams, distractors are typically constructed by swapping numerator and denominator or combining terms additively — always check dimensional consistency.

Question 2

Consider ordinary least squares with hat matrix H=X(XX)1XH=X(X^\top X)^{-1}X^\top and residual-maker M=IHM=I-H. The error covariance is σ2Σ\sigma^2\Sigma, where Σ\Sigma is known, symmetric, and positive definite but need not equal the identity. Which condition is necessary and sufficient for the fitted vector HyHy and residual vector MyMy to be uncorrelated?

  1. Σ=cI\Sigma=cI for some positive constant cc, so the error covariance is a scalar multiple of the identity in every direction.
  2. HΣ=ΣHH\Sigma=\Sigma H, so the covariance matrix commutes with the hat matrix, leaving the model space and its complement invariant under Σ\Sigma. (correct answer)
  3. XΣXX^\top\Sigma X is diagonal, so the predictors are mutually orthogonal under the covariance-weighted inner product defined by Σ\Sigma.
  4. HΣH=ΣH\Sigma H=\Sigma, so the entire error covariance structure is supported within the column space of the fitted-value projector.
Explanation: When checking whether two random vectors are uncorrelated, you compute their cross-covariance matrix and set it to zero. Here, Cov(Hy,My)=HCov(y,y)M=σ2HΣM\text{Cov}(Hy, My) = H \cdot \text{Cov}(y,y) \cdot M^\top = \sigma^2 H\Sigma M. Since HH and M=IHM = I - H are symmetric and idempotent, this simplifies to σ2HΣ(IH)=σ2(HΣHΣH)\sigma^2 H\Sigma(I-H) = \sigma^2(H\Sigma - H\Sigma H). For this to be the zero matrix, you need HΣ=HΣHH\Sigma = H\Sigma H, which is equivalent to requiring HΣM=0H\Sigma M = 0. Notice that HΣ=HΣHH\Sigma = H\Sigma H holds if and only if HΣ(IH)=0H\Sigma(I-H) = 0, and since M=IHM = I - H, this is precisely the condition HΣM=0H\Sigma M = 0. A clean way to see this: premultiplying HΣ=HΣHH\Sigma = H\Sigma H by nothing and postmultiplying by HH shows the condition is symmetric, ultimately equivalent to HΣ=ΣHH\Sigma = \Sigma H — confirming answer B is both necessary and sufficient. Answer A is too restrictive. Proportionality to the identity guarantees commutativity, but commutativity holds in many cases where ΣcI\Sigma \neq cI, so A is sufficient but not necessary. Answer C concerns the structure of XΣXX^\top \Sigma X, which governs generalized least squares efficiency, not whether OLS fitted values and residuals are uncorrelated. Diagonality of XΣXX^\top \Sigma X imposes no direct constraint on HΣMH\Sigma M. Answer D requires HΣH=ΣH\Sigma H = \Sigma, meaning Σ\Sigma lives entirely within the column space of XX. This is far too strong — and also not the right algebraic condition derived from the cross-covariance. A key study habit: always start uncorrelation problems by writing out the cross-covariance explicitly and simplifying using the idempotency and symmetry of projection matrices before evaluating any answer choice.

Question 3

Let a regression design be X=[1,Z]X=[\mathbf 1,Z], where 1\mathbf 1 is the intercept column. Define P1=1(11)11P_1=\mathbf 1(\mathbf 1^\top\mathbf 1)^{-1}\mathbf 1^\top and M1=IP1M_1=I-P_1. Assume M1ZM_1Z has full column rank. Which expression is the orthogonal projector onto C(X)\mathcal C(X)?

  1. P1+M1Z(ZM1Z)1ZM1P_1+M_1Z(Z^\top M_1Z)^{-1}Z^\top M_1, which projects separately onto orthogonal intercept and centered-predictor spaces. (correct answer)
  2. P1+Z(ZZ)1ZP_1+Z(Z^\top Z)^{-1}Z^\top, which adds the intercept projector to the uncentered predictor projector.
  3. P1M1Z(ZM1Z)1ZM1P_1-M_1Z(Z^\top M_1Z)^{-1}Z^\top M_1, which removes the centered-predictor component from the intercept fit.
  4. M1+M1Z(ZM1Z)1ZM1M_1+M_1Z(Z^\top M_1Z)^{-1}Z^\top M_1, which combines residual centering with centered-predictor projection.
Explanation: When you see a question about orthogonal projectors onto a partitioned column space, your instinct should be to apply the Frisch–Waugh–Lovell theorem and the formula for projecting onto C(X)=C([1,Z])\mathcal{C}(X) = \mathcal{C}([\mathbf{1}, Z]). The key idea is that you can build PXP_X by first projecting onto C(1)\mathcal{C}(\mathbf{1}), then projecting the residual of ZZ (after removing the intercept) onto its own column space. Formally, M1ZM_1 Z represents the columns of ZZ orthogonalized against 1\mathbf{1}. Since C(1)\mathcal{C}(\mathbf{1}) and C(M1Z)\mathcal{C}(M_1 Z) are orthogonal complements within C(X)\mathcal{C}(X), the total projector decomposes as: PX=P1+PM1Z=P1+M1Z(ZM1Z)1ZM1P_X = P_1 + P_{M_1 Z} = P_1 + M_1 Z(Z^\top M_1 Z)^{-1} Z^\top M_1 This is exactly answer A, which correctly identifies the two orthogonal subspaces and adds their projectors — a valid operation precisely because they are orthogonal. B is wrong because P1+Z(ZZ)1ZP_1 + Z(Z^\top Z)^{-1}Z^\top adds projectors onto non-orthogonal subspaces (1C(Z)\mathbf{1} \in \mathcal{C}(Z) in general), so the sum is not idempotent and does not define a valid orthogonal projector. C subtracts the centered-predictor component instead of adding it, which would remove directions from the fit rather than include them — this produces neither a projector nor the correct range. D replaces P1P_1 with M1M_1, projecting onto the orthogonal complement of 1\mathbf{1} rather than onto 1\mathbf{1} itself, so the intercept subspace is entirely missing from the range. As a study tip: whenever the design matrix has a partitioned structure [A,B][A, B], always orthogonalize BB against AA first — projectors add cleanly only when their ranges are orthogonal.

Question 4

Let XX be rank deficient, and let GG be any generalized inverse satisfying (XX)G(XX)=XX(X^\top X)G(X^\top X)=X^\top X. Define β~=GXy\tilde\beta=GX^\top y and y~=Xβ~\tilde y=X\tilde\beta. Which statement holds for every such choice of GG?

  1. The coefficient vector β~\tilde\beta is unique and has minimum Euclidean norm, although the fitted vector may depend on GG.
  2. Both the fitted vector and coefficient vector are unique whenever yy lies in C(X)\mathcal C(X), but both may vary otherwise.
  3. The fitted vector is unique only when GG is symmetric, whereas the coefficient vector is invariant across all generalized inverses.
  4. The fitted vector y~\tilde y is unique and equals the Euclidean projection of yy onto C(X)\mathcal C(X), although coefficients may vary. (correct answer)
Explanation: When working with rank-deficient design matrices, the central question is always: what quantities are estimable — meaning invariant across all valid generalized inverses? This question tests exactly that distinction. The key insight is that y~=Xβ~=XGXy\tilde{y} = X\tilde{\beta} = XGX^\top y. Even though GG is not unique, the product XGXXGX^\top is unique for any generalized inverse of XXX^\top X. This is because XGXXGX^\top is the orthogonal projection matrix onto C(X)\mathcal{C}(X), which is entirely determined by the column space — not by any particular basis. Therefore, y~\tilde{y} is always the orthogonal projection of yy onto C(X)\mathcal{C}(X), regardless of which GG you choose. This confirms D is correct. A is wrong on two counts: β~=GXy\tilde{\beta} = GX^\top y is generally not unique (it varies with GG), and minimum-norm solutions require the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse specifically — not just any generalized inverse. The fitted vector, not the coefficient vector, is the invariant quantity. B is incorrect because even when yC(X)y \in \mathcal{C}(X), the coefficients β~\tilde{\beta} can still vary across different generalized inverses (since the system Xβ=yX\beta = y has infinitely many solutions under rank deficiency). The fitted values are always unique, full stop — not conditionally. C has the invariance relationship backwards. It's the fitted values that are invariant, not the coefficients. Symmetry of GG is irrelevant to this invariance. Your study anchor: in rank-deficient models, estimable functions of β\beta — those of the form XβX\beta — are uniquely determined. Coefficients alone are not estimable, but fitted values always are.

Question 5

A reduced linear model has hat matrix H0H_0 and rank 33. A nested full model has hat matrix H1H_1 and rank 55, based on n=25n=25 observations. Suppose y(H1H0)y=12y^\top(H_1-H_0)y=12 and the full-model residual sum of squares is 4040. What is the partial FF statistic, including its numerator and denominator degrees of freedom?

  1. F=6.00F=6.00 with degrees of freedom 22 and 2020, using the unaveraged extra sum of squares.
  2. F=3.30F=3.30 with degrees of freedom 22 and 2222, using the reduced-model residual degrees of freedom.
  3. F=3.00F=3.00 with degrees of freedom 22 and 2020, using the rank difference and full-model error mean square. (correct answer)
  4. F=0.30F=0.30 with degrees of freedom 22 and 2020, using the ratio of total extra sum of squares to residual sum of squares.
Explanation: When comparing nested linear models, the partial FF statistic measures whether the additional predictors in the full model explain significantly more variance. The formula is: F=y(H1H0)y/(r1r0)RSS1/(nr1)F = \frac{y^\top(H_1 - H_0)y / (r_1 - r_0)}{RSS_1 / (n - r_1)} where r1r0r_1 - r_0 is the rank difference (numerator df) and nr1n - r_1 is the full-model error df (denominator df). Here, r1r0=53=2r_1 - r_0 = 5 - 3 = 2, so the extra sum of squares must be averaged over 2 degrees of freedom: 12/2=612/2 = 6. The full-model residual mean square is RSS1/(nr1)=40/(255)=40/20=2RSS_1/(n - r_1) = 40/(25 - 5) = 40/20 = 2. Therefore: F=62=3.00F = \frac{6}{2} = 3.00 with numerator df =2= 2 and denominator df =20= 20. This confirms C is correct. Choice A fails because it places the unaveraged extra sum of squares (12) in the numerator rather than the mean square (6), inflating FF to 6.00 — you must divide by the numerator degrees of freedom before forming the ratio. Choice B uses denominator df =22= 22, which corresponds to nr0=253n - r_0 = 25 - 3, the reduced model's error df. The denominator must use the full model's error df (nr1=20)(n - r_1 = 20). Choice D takes the ratio of the total extra sum of squares to the total residual sum of squares without any averaging, which is not a valid FF statistic construction at all. Study tip: Always track two separate averaging steps — divide the extra SS by (r1r0)(r_1 - r_0) and the residual SS by (nr1)(n - r_1) — and confirm your denominator df comes from the full model, not the reduced one.

Question 6

A full-rank model containing design matrix XX is augmented by one predictor zz. Let MX=IX(XX)1XM_X=I-X(X^\top X)^{-1}X^\top. Suppose zMXz=4z^\top M_Xz=4 and zMXy=6z^\top M_Xy=6. Which pair gives the coefficient of zz in the augmented regression and the corresponding reduction in residual sum of squares?

  1. The coefficient is 32\frac32, and the reduction in residual sum of squares is 99. (correct answer)
  2. The coefficient is 23\frac23, and the reduction in residual sum of squares is 44.
  3. The coefficient is 32\frac32, and the reduction in residual sum of squares is 66.
  4. The coefficient is 23\frac23, and the reduction in residual sum of squares is 99.
Explanation: When a model with design matrix XX is augmented by a new predictor zz, the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell (FWL) theorem tells you everything you need. The key insight is that the new coefficient and its contribution to fit depend entirely on the residualized versions of zz and yy — that is, what remains after projecting out XX. The matrix MX=IX(XX)1XM_X = I - X(X^\top X)^{-1}X^\top is exactly this residual-maker (the annihilator of XX). By FWL, the OLS coefficient on zz in the augmented model equals: γ^=zMXyzMXz=64=32\hat{\gamma} = \frac{z^\top M_X y}{z^\top M_X z} = \frac{6}{4} = \frac{3}{2} The reduction in residual sum of squares (RSS) from adding zz — sometimes called the "extra sum of squares" — equals: ΔRSS=γ^2(zMXz)=(32)24=944=9\Delta\text{RSS} = \hat{\gamma}^2 \cdot (z^\top M_X z) = \left(\frac{3}{2}\right)^2 \cdot 4 = \frac{9}{4} \cdot 4 = 9 Equivalently, ΔRSS=(zMXy)2zMXz=364=9\Delta\text{RSS} = \frac{(z^\top M_X y)^2}{z^\top M_X z} = \frac{36}{4} = 9. This confirms A is correct. Choice B inverts the ratio for γ^\hat{\gamma}, giving 2/32/3, and compounds the error with an incorrect RSS. Choice C gets the coefficient right but reports the RSS as 6 — confusing zMXyz^\top M_X y itself for the reduction in RSS. Choice D inverts the coefficient like B but accidentally gets the RSS right, making it a particularly tempting trap. Study tip: Memorize both FWL formulas together — γ^=(zMXz)1zMXy\hat{\gamma} = (z^\top M_X z)^{-1}z^\top M_X y and ΔRSS=γ^zMXy\Delta\text{RSS} = \hat{\gamma} \cdot z^\top M_X y — since graduate exams routinely test whether you know both quantities and won't conflate them.

Question 7

In a full-rank ordinary least-squares fit, the residual sum of squares using all observations is 4040. For observation ii, the ordinary residual is ei=2e_i=2 and the leverage is hii=14h_{ii}=\frac14. The model is refitted after deleting observation ii. What is the residual sum of squares computed from the remaining observations?

  1. 3636, because deleting the observation removes its ordinary squared residual ei2e_i^2 from the full-data sum.
  2. 1043\frac{104}{3}, because deletion reduces the sum by ei21hii\frac{e_i^2}{1-h_{ii}} after accounting for refitting. (correct answer)
  3. 1163\frac{116}{3}, because deletion reduces the sum by ei2hiie_i^2h_{ii} after leverage adjustment.
  4. 2969\frac{296}{9}, because deletion reduces the sum by ei2(1hii)2\frac{e_i^2}{(1-h_{ii})^2} using the deleted residual.
Explanation: When you delete an observation from a regression model and refit, the new residual sum of squares is not simply the old RSS minus that observation's squared residual — the entire model changes. The key identity connecting full-data quantities to the deleted-model RSS is: RSS(i)=RSSei21hii\text{RSS}_{(i)} = \text{RSS} - \frac{e_i^2}{1 - h_{ii}} This formula works because the change in fit upon deletion depends not just on how large the residual is, but on how influential the observation is via its leverage hiih_{ii}. High-leverage points "pull" the fit toward themselves, so removing them causes a larger adjustment than their raw residual suggests. Plugging in RSS=40\text{RSS} = 40, ei=2e_i = 2, and hii=14h_{ii} = \frac{1}{4}: ei21hii=4114=434=163\frac{e_i^2}{1 - h_{ii}} = \frac{4}{1 - \frac{1}{4}} = \frac{4}{\frac{3}{4}} = \frac{16}{3} RSS(i)=40163=120163=1043\text{RSS}_{(i)} = 40 - \frac{16}{3} = \frac{120 - 16}{3} = \frac{104}{3} This confirms answer B. Answer A makes the intuitive but incorrect assumption that deleting observation ii simply removes ei2=4e_i^2 = 4 from the RSS, ignoring that refitting shifts all coefficient estimates. Answer C applies the wrong adjustment formula, subtracting ei2hii=1e_i^2 h_{ii} = 1 instead of the correct leverage-scaled term. Answer D uses ei2(1hii)2\frac{e_i^2}{(1-h_{ii})^2}, which is the square of the internally studentized residual structure — a plausible-looking but incorrect expression for this quantity. A useful anchor: the deleted residual e(i)=ei1hiie_{(i)} = \frac{e_i}{1-h_{ii}} is the predicted residual for observation ii from the model fit without it, and RSS(i)=RSSeie(i)\text{RSS}_{(i)} = \text{RSS} - e_i \cdot e_{(i)} is the compact way to remember the correct formula.

Question 8

In a linear model with error covariance σ2Σ\sigma^2\Sigma, where Σ\Sigma is known and positive definite, generalized least squares minimizes (yXβ)Σ1(yXβ)(y-X\beta)^\top\Sigma^{-1}(y-X\beta). If y^=Xβ^GLS\hat y=X\hat\beta_{\mathrm{GLS}} and r=yy^r=y-\hat y, which statement correctly describes the associated projection geometry in the original coordinates?

  1. Xr=0X^\top r=0, and y^\hat y is the ordinary Euclidean orthogonal projection of yy onto C(X)\mathcal C(X).
  2. XΣ2r=0X^\top\Sigma^{-2}r=0, and y^\hat y is the Euclidean projection after weighting fitted values by Σ1\Sigma^{-1}.
  3. XΣr=0X^\top\Sigma r=0, and y^\hat y is the projection onto C(X)\mathcal C(X) under the Σ\Sigma inner product.
  4. XΣ1r=0X^\top\Sigma^{-1}r=0, and y^\hat y is the projection onto C(X)\mathcal C(X) under the Σ1\Sigma^{-1} inner product. (correct answer)
Explanation: Whenever you encounter a GLS problem involving projection geometry, your first instinct should be: which inner product defines "orthogonality" here? GLS minimizes a weighted quadratic form, so the geometry lives in a non-Euclidean space. The GLS estimator solves the normal equations derived by differentiating (yXβ)Σ1(yXβ)(y - X\beta)^\top \Sigma^{-1}(y - X\beta) with respect to β\beta, yielding XΣ1(yXβ^GLS)=0X^\top \Sigma^{-1}(y - X\hat\beta_{\mathrm{GLS}}) = 0, or equivalently XΣ1r=0X^\top \Sigma^{-1} r = 0. This is the orthogonality condition under the inner product u,vΣ1=uΣ1v\langle u, v \rangle_{\Sigma^{-1}} = u^\top \Sigma^{-1} v. Under this inner product, y^\hat y is the projection of yy onto C(X)\mathcal{C}(X) — meaning the residual rr is "perpendicular" to the column space of XX in the Σ1\Sigma^{-1}-metric sense. This confirms D is correct. Choice A describes ordinary least squares (OLS), where Σ=I\Sigma = I and orthogonality is Euclidean. It incorrectly applies standard projection to a setting that requires a weighted metric. Choice B introduces Σ2\Sigma^{-2}, which appears nowhere in the GLS derivation — this is a fabricated condition with no geometric or algebraic basis. Choice C flips the matrix: using Σ\Sigma instead of Σ1\Sigma^{-1} would correspond to minimizing (yXβ)Σ(yXβ)(y - X\beta)^\top \Sigma(y - X\beta), a different problem entirely — and it incorrectly names the resulting inner product. A reliable study tip: always trace the normal equations directly from the objective function. The matrix appearing in the weight of the quadratic form is exactly the matrix that appears in the orthogonality condition XWr=0X^\top W r = 0. Here, W=Σ1W = \Sigma^{-1}, so the answer follows immediately.

Question 9

For a full-column-rank linear model, let β^\hat\beta be the unrestricted least-squares estimator. A restricted fit is obtained by imposing aβ=da^\top\beta=d. Suppose aβ^d=3a^\top\hat\beta-d=3 and a(XX)1a=2a^\top(X^\top X)^{-1}a=2. By how much does the residual sum of squares increase under the restriction?

  1. 32\frac32, obtained by dividing the constraint discrepancy by its quadratic-form scaling factor.
  2. 33, obtained by using the unsquared distance from the unrestricted estimate to the constraint.
  3. 92\frac92, obtained from the squared discrepancy divided by the quadratic-form scaling factor. (correct answer)
  4. 1818, obtained by multiplying the squared discrepancy by the quadratic-form scaling factor.
Explanation: When you impose a linear restriction on a least-squares problem, the restricted estimator must "bend" away from the unrestricted optimum, and that detour always increases the residual sum of squares. The exact formula for this increase is derived from the Lagrangian approach to constrained least squares, and it's worth memorizing: the RSS increases by ΔRSS=(aβ^d)2a(XX)1a.\Delta RSS = \frac{(a^\top\hat\beta - d)^2}{a^\top(X^\top X)^{-1}a}. This expression has an intuitive structure — the numerator measures how far the unrestricted estimate violates the constraint, squared, and the denominator is a scaling factor that accounts for the geometry of the design matrix along the direction aa. Plugging in the given values, you get 322=92\frac{3^2}{2} = \frac{9}{2}, confirming that C is correct. Looking at the wrong choices: A divides the unsquared discrepancy (3) by the scaling factor (2), giving 32\frac{3}{2}. This forgets to square the numerator — a classic algebra slip that loses the squared-error structure of least squares. B reports the raw discrepancy of 3 with no division at all, ignoring both the squaring and the scaling factor entirely — this would only matter if the formula were something far simpler. D multiplies the squared discrepancy by the scaling factor, getting 9×2=189 \times 2 = 18, which inverts the correct relationship; larger a(XX)1aa^\top(X^\top X)^{-1}a actually reduces the penalty, not amplifies it. A reliable study tip: whenever you see a restricted vs. unrestricted RSS comparison, immediately write down ΔRSS=(aβ^d)2/[a(XX)1a]\Delta RSS = (a^\top\hat\beta - d)^2 / [a^\top(X^\top X)^{-1}a] and match it to an F-statistic numerator — that connection will help you remember both the formula and its role in hypothesis testing.