Statistics Graduate Level Quiz: Central Limit Theorem
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Central Limit TheoremQuestion 1 of 9

Let X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots be independent and identically distributed with E[Xi]=0E[X_i]=0 and Var(Xi)=4\operatorname{Var}(X_i)=4. No normality assumption is made. If Xˉn=n1i=1nXi\bar X_n=n^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i, what is the limiting distribution of nXˉn2n\bar X_n^2?

A distribution equal to 4χ124\chi_1^2
A distribution equal to χ12\chi_1^2
A normal distribution with mean 00 and variance 1616
A degenerate distribution concentrated at 44
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Statistics Graduate Level Quiz

Statistics Graduate Level Quiz: Central Limit Theorem

Practice Central Limit Theorem in Statistics Graduate Level with focused quiz questions that help you check what you know, review explanations, and build confidence with test-style prompts.

What this quiz covers

This quiz focuses on Central Limit Theorem, giving you a quick way to practice the rules, question types, and explanations that matter most for Statistics Graduate Level.

How to use this quiz

Try each quiz question before looking at the correct answer. Use the explanations to review missed ideas, then come back to similar questions until the pattern feels familiar.

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Question 1

Let X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots be independent and identically distributed with E[Xi]=0E[X_i]=0 and Var(Xi)=4\operatorname{Var}(X_i)=4. No normality assumption is made. If Xˉn=n1i=1nXi\bar X_n=n^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i, what is the limiting distribution of nXˉn2n\bar X_n^2?

  1. A distribution equal to 4χ124\chi_1^2 (correct answer)
  2. A distribution equal to χ12\chi_1^2
  3. A normal distribution with mean 00 and variance 1616
  4. A degenerate distribution concentrated at 44
Explanation: Whenever you see a question involving Xˉn\bar{X}_n raised to a power, your instinct should be to apply the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) combined with the Continuous Mapping Theorem (CMT). The CLT tells you that nXˉndN(0,σ2)\sqrt{n}\bar{X}_n \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \sigma^2), where σ2=Var(Xi)=4\sigma^2 = \text{Var}(X_i) = 4. So nXˉndN(0,4)\sqrt{n}\bar{X}_n \xrightarrow{d} N(0,4). Now notice that nXˉn2=(nXˉn)2n\bar{X}_n^2 = \left(\sqrt{n}\bar{X}_n\right)^2. Since squaring is a continuous function, the CMT lets you square the limiting distribution directly: nXˉn2d[N(0,4)]2n\bar{X}_n^2 \xrightarrow{d} [N(0,4)]^2. A N(0,4)N(0,4) random variable can be written as 2Z2Z where ZN(0,1)Z \sim N(0,1), so (2Z)2=4Z24χ12(2Z)^2 = 4Z^2 \sim 4\chi^2_1. This confirms answer A is correct. Answer B, χ12\chi^2_1, forgets to account for the variance. It would be correct only if σ2=1\sigma^2 = 1, but here σ2=4\sigma^2 = 4, so the scaling factor of 4 must appear. Answer C proposes a normal limiting distribution, but squaring a normal random variable produces a chi-squared-type distribution, not another normal. The CMT preserves the distribution under continuous transformations — it does not preserve normality. Answer D, a degenerate distribution at 4, would be the result of applying the Law of Large Numbers: nXˉn2n\bar{X}_n^2 grows like nn, not like a constant, so no degenerate limit exists. Key strategy: When you see nXˉn2n\bar{X}_n^2, immediately rewrite it as (nXˉn)2(\sqrt{n}\bar{X}_n)^2, apply CLT, then CMT. Always carry the variance σ2\sigma^2 through — it's the most common source of scaling errors on these problems.

Question 2

An experiment contains mm independent clusters, each with 44 observations. Within every cluster, outcomes have common mean μ\mu, common variance σ2\sigma^2, and pairwise correlation ρ=0.25\rho=0.25. Assume a central limit theorem applies to the independent cluster totals. If Yˉm\bar Y_m is the mean of all 4m4m outcomes, what is the limiting distribution of 4m(Yˉmμ)\sqrt{4m}(\bar Y_m-\mu) as mm\to\infty?

  1. N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2), treating all individual outcomes as independent and ignoring within-cluster correlation
  2. N(0,1.75σ2)N(0,1.75\sigma^2), because within-cluster covariances inflate the effective variance by a factor of 1+3ρ1+3\rho (correct answer)
  3. N(0,0.4375σ2)N(0,0.4375\sigma^2), equal to the variance of a single cluster mean without rescaling by the sample size
  4. N(0,4σ2)N(0,4\sigma^2), treating each cluster total as a single perfectly correlated observation
Explanation: When you see clustered data with within-group correlation, your first instinct should be to work at the cluster level, not the individual observation level, because the CLT applies to independent units — and here, the independent units are clusters. Start by computing the variance of a single cluster total. Each cluster has 4 observations with variance σ2\sigma^2 and pairwise correlation ρ=0.25\rho = 0.25. The variance of the cluster total is Var(Ti)=4σ2+2(42)ρσ2=4σ2+12(0.25)σ2=7σ2\text{Var}(T_i) = 4\sigma^2 + 2\binom{4}{2}\rho\sigma^2 = 4\sigma^2 + 12(0.25)\sigma^2 = 7\sigma^2. The grand mean is Yˉm=14mi=1mTi\bar{Y}_m = \frac{1}{4m}\sum_{i=1}^m T_i, so Var(Yˉm)=7σ216m\text{Var}(\bar{Y}_m) = \frac{7\sigma^2}{16m}. Rescaling by 4m\sqrt{4m} gives Var ⁣(4mYˉm)=4m7σ216m=7σ24=1.75σ2\text{Var}\!\left(\sqrt{4m}\,\bar{Y}_m\right) = 4m \cdot \frac{7\sigma^2}{16m} = \frac{7\sigma^2}{4} = 1.75\sigma^2. This equals σ2(1+3ρ)\sigma^2(1 + 3\rho), confirming answer B. A is tempting but wrong — it treats all 4m4m outcomes as independent, ignoring the (42)=6\binom{4}{2} = 6 covariance terms per cluster, which underestimates the variance. C computes Var(Tˉi/4)=7σ2/16\text{Var}(\bar{T}_i/4) = 7\sigma^2/16, the variance of one cluster mean, but forgets to multiply by 4m4m from the rescaling — it confuses a single-cluster quantity with the limiting variance. D overcorrects by assuming perfect correlation (ρ=1\rho=1) within clusters, yielding 4σ24\sigma^2, which inflates variance far beyond what ρ=0.25\rho=0.25 produces. The key study tip: always compute Var(cluster total)\text{Var}(\text{cluster total}) explicitly, accounting for all pairwise covariances. The design effect 1+(n1)ρ1 + (n-1)\rho is worth memorizing — it directly captures how intra-cluster correlation inflates variance relative to the independent case.

Question 3

Let X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots be independent and identically distributed with Pareto tail P(Xi>x)=x3/2P(X_i>x)=x^{-3/2} for x1x\ge1, and let μ=E[Xi]\mu=E[X_i]. Which statement correctly describes the asymptotic behavior of the sample mean Xˉn\bar X_n?

  1. n(Xˉnμ)\sqrt n(\bar X_n-\mu) converges to a normal distribution, because the mean is finite
  2. n1/3(Xˉnμ)n^{1/3}(\bar X_n-\mu) converges to a non-Gaussian stable distribution with index 3/23/2 (correct answer)
  3. n1/3(Xˉnμ)n^{1/3}(\bar X_n-\mu) converges to a standard normal distribution at the stable rate
  4. n2/3(Xˉnμ)n^{2/3}(\bar X_n-\mu) converges to a non-Gaussian stable distribution with index 3/23/2
Explanation: When you see a sample mean from a heavy-tailed distribution, your first instinct should be to check whether the variance is finite — because that determines whether the classical CLT applies or whether you need a generalized stable-law framework. Here, P(Xi>x)=x3/2P(X_i > x) = x^{-3/2}, so the density is f(x)=32x5/2f(x) = \frac{3}{2}x^{-5/2} for x1x \geq 1. The mean μ=E[Xi]\mu = E[X_i] is finite (the integral converges), but E[Xi2]=1x232x5/2dx=132x1/2dx=E[X_i^2] = \int_1^\infty x^2 \cdot \frac{3}{2}x^{-5/2}\,dx = \int_1^\infty \frac{3}{2}x^{-1/2}\,dx = \infty. No finite variance means the classical CLT fails. Instead, you apply the Generalized Central Limit Theorem: when the tail satisfies P(X>x)xαP(X > x) \sim x^{-\alpha} with α(1,2)\alpha \in (1,2), the properly centered and scaled mean converges to a stable distribution with index α\alpha. Here α=3/2\alpha = 3/2, so the stable index is 3/23/2. The correct normalization is n1/α=n2/3n^{1/\alpha} = n^{2/3}... wait — actually the sum SnS_n scales as n1/αn^{1/\alpha}, meaning Xˉnμ=Sn/nμ\bar{X}_n - \mu = S_n/n - \mu scales as n1/α1=n1/31=n2/3n^{1/\alpha - 1} = n^{1/3-1} = n^{-2/3}, so multiplying by n2/3n^{2/3} centers the convergence. That confirms B — wait, B uses n1/3n^{1/3}, while D uses n2/3n^{2/3}. The correct scaling factor is n1/α/n=n1/α1n^{1/\alpha} / n = n^{1/\alpha - 1}, so you need n2/3n^{2/3} to get a nondegenerate limit, making D the correct answer. A is wrong because finite mean alone does not guarantee the CLT — you need finite variance. B uses the wrong normalizing exponent n1/3n^{1/3} instead of n2/3n^{2/3}. C compounds two errors: wrong exponent and wrong limiting distribution (stable ≠ normal). Study tip: Memorize the two-step check — finite mean gives you a center; finite variance gives you the CLT rate n\sqrt{n}. If variance is infinite but the tail index is α(1,2)\alpha \in (1,2), the rate is n11/αn^{1-1/\alpha} and the limit is a non-Gaussian stable law.

Question 4

Let X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots be independent and identically distributed with E[Xi]=0E[X_i]=0 and Var(Xi)=1\operatorname{Var}(X_i)=1. Consider the unequally weighted statistic Tn=n3/2i=1niXiT_n=n^{-3/2}\sum_{i=1}^n iX_i. Which limiting distribution follows from an appropriate triangular-array central limit theorem?

  1. N(0,1)N(0,1) because the observations have unit variance
  2. N(0,1/2)N(0,1/2) because the average normalized weight is one-half
  3. N(0,1/3)N(0,1/3) because the normalized squared weights converge to one-third (correct answer)
  4. No normal limit, because the largest weight is not equal to the others
Explanation: When you see a statistic built from non-constant weights applied to i.i.d. variables, your instinct should be to reach for the Lindeberg-Feller triangular array CLT, not the classical CLT. The key question becomes: what variance does TnT_n actually accumulate, and do the Lindeberg conditions hold? Start by computing Var(Tn)\operatorname{Var}(T_n). Since the XiX_i are independent with unit variance: Var(Tn)=n3i=1ni2Var(Xi)=n3i=1ni2.\operatorname{Var}(T_n) = n^{-3} \sum_{i=1}^n i^2 \cdot \operatorname{Var}(X_i) = n^{-3} \sum_{i=1}^n i^2. Using the identity i=1ni2=n(n+1)(2n+1)6n33\sum_{i=1}^n i^2 = \frac{n(n+1)(2n+1)}{6} \sim \frac{n^3}{3}, you get Var(Tn)13\operatorname{Var}(T_n) \to \frac{1}{3}. The Lindeberg condition is satisfied because the largest individual term n3/2nXnn^{-3/2} \cdot n \cdot X_n contributes variance n10n^{-1} \to 0, so no single summand dominates. The triangular array CLT therefore gives TndN(0,1/3)T_n \xrightarrow{d} N(0, 1/3), confirming C. Choice A is wrong because Var(Xi)=1\operatorname{Var}(X_i) = 1 tells you about individual terms, not the accumulated variance of the weighted sum — you still need to track the weights. Choice B confuses the average weight 1ni/n1/2\frac{1}{n}\sum i/n \to 1/2 with the correct quantity, which involves squared weights summed. Choice D is a misconception: unequal weights are perfectly compatible with a normal limit as long as Lindeberg's condition holds, which it does here because the maximum weight shrinks to zero relative to the total. Your study tip: always compute wn,i2\sum w_{n,i}^2 for weighted sums — this is what determines the limiting variance, and it's almost never the same as the average weight.

Question 5

A sequence of finite populations has sizes NN\to\infty, population means μN\mu_N, and population variances defined by N1j=1N(YNjμN)225N^{-1}\sum_{j=1}^N(Y_{Nj}-\mu_N)^2\to25. From each population, a simple random sample without replacement of size nn is drawn, with n/N0.4n/N\to0.4. Assume the finite-population central limit theorem's no-dominant-unit condition holds. What is the limit of n(YˉnμN)\sqrt n(\bar Y_n-\mu_N)?

  1. N(0,25)N(0,25), because the sample mean uses nn observations
  2. N(0,15)N(0,15), after applying the finite-population correction (correct answer)
  3. N(0,10)N(0,10), because only forty percent of the population is sampled
  4. A degenerate limit at 00, because sampling is without replacement
Explanation: When sampling without replacement from a finite population, the variance of the sample mean is not simply σ2/n\sigma^2/n — it gets deflated by the finite population correction (FPC). Specifically, the variance of Yˉn\bar{Y}_n under simple random sampling without replacement is: Var(Yˉn)=σN2n(1nN)\text{Var}(\bar{Y}_n) = \frac{\sigma_N^2}{n}\left(1 - \frac{n}{N}\right) where σN2\sigma_N^2 is the population variance. By the finite-population CLT (under the no-dominant-unit condition), n(YˉnμN)\sqrt{n}(\bar{Y}_n - \mu_N) converges in distribution to N(0,σN2(1f))N(0,\, \sigma_N^2(1-f)), where f=n/Nf = n/N is the sampling fraction. Here, σN225\sigma_N^2 \to 25 and f0.4f \to 0.4, so the limiting variance is 25(10.4)=25(0.6)=1525(1-0.4) = 25(0.6) = 15. The correct answer is B: the limiting distribution is N(0,15)N(0,15). Choice A ignores the FPC entirely, as if the draws were independent (i.e., sampling with replacement). When n/Nn/N converges to a positive constant, this omission is not asymptotically negligible — you must account for the correction. Choice C computes 25×0.4=1025 \times 0.4 = 10, mistakenly multiplying by the sampling fraction itself rather than its complement (1f)(1-f). This confuses what's removed from variance with what's retained. Choice D is a tempting trap: without replacement does reduce variance, but it does not collapse the distribution to a point mass unless f1f \to 1 (a census). Here f0.4<1f \to 0.4 < 1, so a genuine normal limit persists. Study tip: Always ask whether n/Nn/N converges to a positive constant. If yes, the FPC factor (1f)(1-f) is asymptotically material and must multiply the variance in your CLT statement.

Question 6

Suppose X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots are independent and identically distributed with mean μ\mu and variance 0<σ2<0<\sigma^2<\infty, but E[(X1μ)4]=E[(X_1-\mu)^4]=\infty. Let Sn2=(n1)1i=1n(XiXˉn)2S_n^2=(n-1)^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n(X_i-\bar X_n)^2. Which conclusion about Tn=n(Xˉnμ)/SnT_n=\sqrt n(\bar X_n-\mu)/S_n is justified?

  1. TnN(0,1)T_n\Rightarrow N(0,1) despite the infinite fourth moment (correct answer)
  2. TnT_n has exactly a tn1t_{n-1} distribution for every nn
  3. TnT_n has no limiting distribution because its denominator is inconsistent
  4. TnN(0,1)T_n\Rightarrow N(0,1) only if the fourth moment is finite
Explanation: When you see a question about the Student's t-statistic under non-normal assumptions, your instinct should be to think carefully about what each piece of the statistic requires to converge — the numerator and denominator separately. The key insight is that Tn=n(Xˉnμ)/SnT_n = \sqrt{n}(\bar{X}_n - \mu)/S_n is a ratio. The numerator n(Xˉnμ)\sqrt{n}(\bar{X}_n - \mu) converges in distribution to N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^2) by the Central Limit Theorem, which requires only finite variance — not finite fourth moment. The denominator Sn2S_n^2 is a consistent estimator of σ2\sigma^2 under the same condition: by the Law of Large Numbers, Sn2pσ2S_n^2 \xrightarrow{p} \sigma^2 whenever σ2<\sigma^2 < \infty. Applying Slutsky's theorem, the ratio converges to N(0,1)N(0,1). The fourth moment plays no role in either argument. So A is correct. B is wrong because the exact tn1t_{n-1} distribution requires normality of the XiX_i, not just finite variance. Without normality, the t-distribution is only a large-sample approximation. C is wrong because the premise is false — Sn2S_n^2 is consistent under finite variance; inconsistency would require σ2=\sigma^2 = \infty. D is the most tempting trap: it conflates what's needed for the CLT with what's needed for other results (like the delta method or variance of Sn2S_n^2). Finite fourth moment is sufficient for Var(Sn2)<\text{Var}(S_n^2) < \infty, but it is not necessary for Sn2pσ2S_n^2 \xrightarrow{p} \sigma^2. Your study tip: always decompose a statistic into its parts and ask what each part needs to converge. The CLT and LLN require only two moments — don't impose stronger conditions than necessary.

Question 7

Let NnPoisson(n)N_n\sim\operatorname{Poisson}(n), and independently let X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots be independent and identically distributed with E[Xi]=μE[X_i]=\mu and Var(Xi)=σ2<\operatorname{Var}(X_i)=\sigma^2<\infty. Define the random sum Sn=i=1NnXiS_n=\sum_{i=1}^{N_n}X_i, with an empty sum equal to 00. What is the limiting distribution of (Snnμ)/n(S_n-n\mu)/\sqrt n?

  1. N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2), because only the summand variability contributes
  2. N(0,μ2)N(0,\mu^2), because only the random count contributes
  3. N(0,σ2+μ2)N(0,\sigma^2+\mu^2), because both sources of variation contribute (correct answer)
  4. N(0,σ2μ2)N(0,\sigma^2\mu^2), because the two variances multiply
Explanation: When you encounter a random sum Sn=i=1NnXiS_n = \sum_{i=1}^{N_n} X_i where the number of terms is itself random, you need to account for two independent sources of variability: randomness in the individual XiX_i values, and randomness in the count NnN_n. The key tool here is the law of total variance: Var(Sn)=E[Var(SnNn)]+Var(E[SnNn])\operatorname{Var}(S_n) = E[\operatorname{Var}(S_n \mid N_n)] + \operatorname{Var}(E[S_n \mid N_n]). Conditioning on NnN_n: E[SnNn]=NnμE[S_n \mid N_n] = N_n \mu and Var(SnNn)=Nnσ2\operatorname{Var}(S_n \mid N_n) = N_n \sigma^2. Since NnPoisson(n)N_n \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(n), we have E[Nn]=Var(Nn)=nE[N_n] = \operatorname{Var}(N_n) = n. Plugging in: Var(Sn)=E[Nnσ2]+Var(Nnμ)=nσ2+nμ2\operatorname{Var}(S_n) = E[N_n \sigma^2] + \operatorname{Var}(N_n \mu) = n\sigma^2 + n\mu^2. Also, E[Sn]=nμE[S_n] = n\mu, so (Snnμ)/n(S_n - n\mu)/\sqrt{n} has variance σ2+μ2\sigma^2 + \mu^2. A CLT argument (via characteristic functions or Wald's identity extensions) confirms the limit is N(0,σ2+μ2)N(0, \sigma^2 + \mu^2), making C correct. Choice A captures only the within-group variance σ2\sigma^2, ignoring that the random count NnN_n fluctuates around nn with variance nn, contributing μ2\mu^2 per unit. Choice B keeps only μ2\mu^2, the contribution from count randomness, and discards the summand variability σ2\sigma^2. Choice D multiplies the two variance components, which has no probabilistic justification — variances from independent additive sources add, they do not multiply. A useful rule of thumb: for Poisson random sums, the asymptotic variance is always σ2+μ2\sigma^2 + \mu^2, reflecting that Poisson randomness contributes exactly μ2\mu^2 regardless of the distribution of XiX_i.

Question 8

Independent and identically distributed pairs (Xi,Yi)(X_i,Y_i) satisfy E[Xi]=2E[X_i]=2, E[Yi]=1E[Y_i]=1, Var(Xi)=4\operatorname{Var}(X_i)=4, Var(Yi)=1\operatorname{Var}(Y_i)=1, and Cov(Xi,Yi)=1\operatorname{Cov}(X_i,Y_i)=1. For the ratio estimator Rn=Xˉn/YˉnR_n=\bar X_n/\bar Y_n, what is the limiting distribution of n(Rn2)\sqrt n(R_n-2)?

  1. N(0,4)N(0,4), obtained via the delta method applied to g(x,y)=x/yg(x,y)=x/y at the point (2,1)(2,1) (correct answer)
  2. N(0,8)N(0,8), obtained by ignoring the covariance and summing only the scaled numerator and denominator variances
  3. N(0,2)N(0,2), obtained by accounting for the covariance term only once instead of twice in the quadratic form
  4. N(0,5)N(0,5), obtained by linearizing the ratio as the unweighted difference XˉnYˉn\bar X_n - \bar Y_n
Explanation: Whenever you see a ratio estimator problem, your first instinct should be the delta method: if n(Zˉnμ)dN(0,Σ)\sqrt{n}(\bar{\mathbf{Z}}_n - \boldsymbol{\mu}) \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \Sigma), then n(g(Zˉn)g(μ))dN(0,gΣg)\sqrt{n}(g(\bar{\mathbf{Z}}_n) - g(\boldsymbol{\mu})) \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \nabla g^\top \Sigma \nabla g). For g(x,y)=x/yg(x,y) = x/y evaluated at μ=(2,1)\boldsymbol{\mu} = (2,1), the gradient is g=(1/y,x/y2)(2,1)=(1,2)\nabla g = (1/y,\, -x/y^2)\big|_{(2,1)} = (1, -2). The covariance matrix of (Xi,Yi)(X_i, Y_i) is $$\Sigma = \begin{pmatrix}4 & 1\1 & 1\end{pmatrix} $$\nabla g^\top \Sigma \nabla g = (1,\,-2)\begin{pmatrix}4&1\\1&1\end{pmatrix}\begin{pmatrix}1\\-2\end{pmatrix} = (1,-2)\begin{pmatrix}2\\-1\end{pmatrix} = 2+2 = 4.$$ So $$\sqrt{n}(R_n - 2) \xrightarrow{d} N(0,4)$$, confirming **A is correct**. **B** inflates the variance to 8 by summing $$\text{Var}(X)/\mu_Y^2 + \text{Var}(Y)\mu_X^2/\mu_Y^4 = 4 + 4 = 8$$ while completely ignoring the cross-covariance term $$-2\text{Cov}(X,Y)/\mu_Y^2 = -4$$, which subtracts 4 from the total. **C** gets 2 by subtracting the covariance contribution only once ($$8 - 2 = 6$$, or miscounting to get 2), misapplying the quadratic form where the off-diagonal must be counted twice due to symmetry. **D** linearizes $$R_n \approx \bar{X}_n - \bar{Y}_n$$, which ignores the proper first-order Taylor expansion and the scaling by $$\mu_Y$$; the correct linearization is $$R_n \approx \mu_X/\mu_Y + (1/\mu_Y)(\bar{X}_n - \mu_X) - (\mu_X/\mu_Y^2)(\bar{Y}_n - \mu_Y)$$. **Study tip:** Always write out $$\nabla g$$ explicitly and carefully compute the full quadratic form $$\nabla g^\top \Sigma \nabla g$$—off-diagonal covariance terms are the most common source of error in delta method problems.

Question 9

A stationary Gaussian time series has mean μ\mu, marginal variance 11, and autocovariance Cov(Xt,Xt+h)=(1/2)h\operatorname{Cov}(X_t,X_{t+h})=(1/2)^{|h|}. Let Xˉn=n1t=1nXt\bar X_n=n^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^nX_t. What is the limiting distribution of n(Xˉnμ)\sqrt n(\bar X_n-\mu)?

  1. N(0,1)N(0,1), using only the marginal variance and ignoring serial dependence
  2. N(0,2)N(0,2), obtained by adding the positive-lag autocovariances only once instead of twice
  3. N(0,3)N(0,3), obtained from the long-run variance summing all lags symmetrically (correct answer)
  4. N(0,1/2)N(0,1/2), obtained by subtracting the lag-1 autocovariance from the marginal variance
Explanation: When a time series has serial dependence, the classical CLT for i.i.d. data no longer applies directly. Instead, you need the long-run variance, which accounts for all autocovariances across every lag. For a stationary process, the long-run variance is σLR2=h=γ(h)\sigma^2_{LR} = \sum_{h=-\infty}^{\infty} \gamma(h), where γ(h)=Cov(Xt,Xt+h)\gamma(h) = \text{Cov}(X_t, X_{t+h}). Under mild mixing conditions (satisfied here since autocovariances decay geometrically), n(Xˉnμ)dN(0,σLR2)\sqrt{n}(\bar{X}_n - \mu) \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \sigma^2_{LR}). For this problem, γ(h)=(1/2)h\gamma(h) = (1/2)^{|h|}, so: σLR2=h=(12)h=1+2h=1(12)h=1+21/211/2=1+2(1)=3\sigma^2_{LR} = \sum_{h=-\infty}^{\infty} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{|h|} = 1 + 2\sum_{h=1}^{\infty} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^h = 1 + 2 \cdot \frac{1/2}{1 - 1/2} = 1 + 2(1) = 3 The limiting distribution is therefore N(0,3)N(0,3), confirming C. Choice A is the most tempting trap: it uses only γ(0)=1\gamma(0) = 1 (the marginal variance), as if observations were independent. Positive serial correlation inflates the variance of Xˉn\bar{X}_n, so this underestimates the true spread. Choice B adds positive-lag autocovariances only once — 1+h=1(1/2)h=1+1=21 + \sum_{h=1}^{\infty}(1/2)^h = 1 + 1 = 2 — forgetting that the sum runs over both positive and negative lags symmetrically, each contributing equally. Choice D subtracts the lag-1 autocovariance, a formula more appropriate for negatively-correlated processes like MA(1) with negative coefficients; there is no principled reason to subtract here. Your key study tip: whenever you see n(Xˉnμ)\sqrt{n}(\bar{X}_n - \mu) with a dependent process, immediately write down h=γ(h)\sum_{h=-\infty}^{\infty}\gamma(h) and remember the factor of 2 for the symmetric negative lags — that factor is exactly what separates answers B and C.