Demographic Transition and Population Pyramids (9B) Practice Test

A demographer is asked to forecast changes for Country D, currently described as stage 3 of the demographic transition model. The ministry reports that contraceptive access has expanded and average age at first marriage has increased, while mortality remains low. Demographic transition theory predicts declining fertility during stage 3, gradually narrowing the base of the pyramid. The current simplified pyramid is:

Country D (current) 80+ || 60–79 ||| 40–59 |||| 20–39 |||||| 0–19 ||||||||

Which future change is most likely if stage 3 trends continue?

Country E is described as stage 2 of the demographic transition model. Over a decade, clean water and basic medical access expanded, but cultural norms still favor large families and contraception remains uncommon. Demographic transition theory predicts high birth rates with falling death rates in stage 2, producing rapid population growth and a youthful age structure. A simplified pyramid is shown:

Country E 80+ | 60–79 || 40–59 ||| 20–39 |||| 0–19 |||||||||

Based on the pyramid and stage 2 designation, which trend is most likely to strain social infrastructure in the near term?