All questions
Question 1
A school nurse wants to estimate the average amount of sleep students get per night. She randomly surveys 20 students four different times, getting these average results: 7.2 hours, 6.8 hours, 7.5 hours, and 6.9 hours. A teacher suggests the nurse should survey 100 students just once instead. Which approach is better for making inferences?
- The teacher's approach, because larger samples always provide more accurate estimates of population parameters
- The teacher's approach, because it eliminates the confusion caused by getting different results from multiple samples
- Both approaches are equally good since they survey the same total number of students overall
- The nurse's approach, because multiple samples reveal how much estimates can vary and improve reliability (correct answer)
Explanation: When you encounter questions about sampling methods and statistical inference, focus on what makes estimates more reliable and informative rather than just looking at sample size alone.
The nurse's approach of taking multiple samples of 20 students each is superior because it reveals the natural variability in estimates and provides more reliable results. When you take multiple samples, you can see how much your estimates typically vary (7.2, 6.8, 7.5, and 6.9 hours), which helps you understand the precision of your measurement. You can also average these results (7.1 hours) for a more stable estimate than any single sample would provide.
Let's examine why the other options miss the mark. Choice A incorrectly assumes larger samples are always better, but a single large sample can't show you how much estimates vary from sample to sample. Choice B misunderstands that getting "different results" isn't confusion—it's valuable information about variability that helps assess reliability. Choice C seems logical since both approaches survey 80 students total, but it ignores that the sampling structure matters more than just the total count.
The correct answer is D because multiple samples reveal estimation variability and improve reliability through repeated measurement. This approach follows sound statistical principles used in real research.
Study tip: When comparing sampling methods, remember that multiple smaller samples often beat one large sample because they show you the consistency of your results and reduce the risk of getting misled by one unusual sample.
Question 2
A student council wants to predict the winner of a school election between candidates Martinez and Chen. They conduct three random surveys of 40 students each. Survey 1 shows Martinez leading 24-16, Survey 2 shows Chen leading 23-17, and Survey 3 shows Martinez leading 22-18. What conclusion is most appropriate?
- Martinez will definitely win because she led in two out of three surveys conducted
- The election is too close to call reliably, given the variation and small margins in the sample data (correct answer)
- Chen will likely win because Survey 2 showed the largest margin of victory for any candidate
- Martinez will probably win because her average support across all surveys exceeds 50% of responses
Explanation: The correct answer is B. The surveys show conflicting results with small margins (60% vs 40%, 57.5% vs 42.5%, 55% vs 45%), indicating high uncertainty. Multiple samples showing different winners suggests the race is too close to predict reliably. A is wrong because survey frequency doesn't guarantee electoral victory. C is wrong because one survey's margin doesn't override contradictory evidence. D is wrong because averaging across conflicting samples doesn't provide reliable prediction when variation is high.
Question 3
A sports analyst randomly samples game statistics to predict a basketball player's average points per game for the season. Five samples of 8 games each yield averages of 14.3, 16.1, 13.8, 15.7, and 14.9 points. The player has 82 games total in the season. Which prediction strategy is most appropriate?
- Predict exactly 14.96 points per game by averaging all sample means and multiplying by appropriate factors
- Predict between 14.0 and 15.5 points per game using only the three most consistent sample results
- Predict 16.1 points per game since this was the highest average observed in the samples
- Predict the season average will fall between 13.5 and 16.5 points per game based on sample variation (correct answer)
Explanation: When you're making predictions from sample data, you need to understand that samples give you estimates, not exact values. The key insight here is recognizing the natural variation in sample results and accounting for uncertainty in your prediction.
The correct approach is D because it acknowledges the range of variation observed in the samples (13.8 to 16.1) and provides a reasonable prediction interval. Since all five sample means fall between these values, it's logical to expect the true season average will likely fall within a similar range. Adding some buffer (13.5 to 16.5) accounts for the fact that samples don't capture every possible outcome.
A is wrong because it suggests you can calculate an exact prediction by "multiplying by appropriate factors." Real statistical prediction doesn't work this way—you can't eliminate uncertainty through mathematical manipulation of sample means.
B is flawed because it arbitrarily throws out data by selecting only "three most consistent" results. In statistics, you should use all available data unless there's a valid reason to exclude outliers, which don't exist here.
C makes the error of cherry-picking the highest value. Using only the best sample result ignores the natural variation in the data and would likely lead to an overestimate.
Study tip: When working with sample data, remember that your goal is to estimate a range where the true value likely falls, not to calculate a precise number. Look for answer choices that acknowledge uncertainty and variation rather than those claiming false precision.
Question 4
A botanist wants to estimate the average height of oak trees in a forest. She measures random samples of 10 trees each, obtaining these average heights: 18.2 ft, 16.8 ft, 19.5 ft, and 17.3 ft. Before concluding her study, she takes one final sample that yields an average of 21.1 ft. How should this last result affect her inference?
- She should discard the 21.1 ft result because it differs too much from the other samples
- She should expand her estimated range to account for this additional variation in the data (correct answer)
- She should conclude that oak trees are getting taller, since the final sample showed the highest average
- She should repeat the final sample because 21.1 ft is probably a measurement error
Explanation: The correct answer is B. The new sample of 21.1 ft extends the range of observed sample means from 16.8-19.5 ft to 16.8-21.1 ft, indicating greater population variability than initially estimated. A responsible inference should expand the estimated range accordingly. A is wrong because all random samples are valid. C is wrong because samples don't show temporal trends. D is wrong because higher values aren't necessarily errors.
Question 5
A researcher wants to estimate the average number of books read per year by students at Lincoln Middle School. She randomly selects 30 students and finds their average is 8.2 books per year. To check the reliability of this estimate, she takes four more random samples of 30 students each, obtaining averages of 7.8, 9.1, 8.5, and 7.6 books per year. Based on all five samples, what is the most reasonable prediction for the population mean?
- Between 7.5 and 9.2 books per year, since this range captures the variation observed across multiple samples (correct answer)
- Exactly 8.2 books per year, since this was the result from the original and most important sample
- Between 8.0 and 8.5 books per year, since this represents the middle half of all sample means obtained
- Between 7.6 and 9.1 books per year, since these are the minimum and maximum values from all samples
Explanation: The correct answer is A. When using multiple samples to gauge variation, we should consider a reasonable range that accounts for sampling variability. The range 7.5-9.2 provides a buffer around the observed values (7.6-9.1) that reflects realistic uncertainty. B is wrong because no single sample gives the exact population mean. C is wrong because it arbitrarily uses only the middle values. D is wrong because using just the extreme values doesn't account for sampling uncertainty.
Question 6
A restaurant owner surveys random customers to estimate average satisfaction ratings for the entire month. Three samples of 15 customers each yield average ratings of 3.8, 4.2, and 3.5 on a 5-point scale. If she takes two more samples and gets averages of 4.1 and 3.9, how should she interpret these results?
- Customer satisfaction improved over time, since the later samples had higher average ratings than earlier ones
- The true average satisfaction is approximately 3.9, calculated as the mean of all five sample averages
- Customer satisfaction likely ranges between 3.4 and 4.3, reflecting the uncertainty shown by sample variation (correct answer)
- The sampling method is flawed because the results vary too much to provide useful information
Explanation: The correct answer is C. Multiple samples showing variation from 3.5 to 4.2 suggest the population mean likely falls in a range accounting for sampling uncertainty, such as 3.4-4.3. A is wrong because random samples don't show time trends. B is wrong because averaging sample means doesn't account for sampling variability. D is wrong because this amount of variation is normal and expected in sampling.
Question 7
A quality control inspector randomly samples 25 light bulbs from a large shipment and finds that 3 are defective. She then takes three additional samples of 25 bulbs each, finding 1, 4, and 2 defective bulbs respectively. If the shipment contains 10,000 bulbs, which inference about the total number of defective bulbs is most justified?
- Approximately 1,000 to 1,600 defective bulbs, based on the range of defect rates observed across samples
- Exactly 1,200 defective bulbs, calculated using the average defect rate of 12% across all samples
- Between 400 and 1,600 defective bulbs, reflecting the minimum and maximum defect rates from individual samples (correct answer)
- Approximately 800 to 1,200 defective bulbs, using only the most reliable middle samples to avoid extremes
Explanation: The correct answer is C. The defect rates from the four samples are 12%, 4%, 16%, and 8%. Applied to 10,000 bulbs, this gives a range of 400 to 1,600 defective bulbs, which appropriately reflects the variation observed. A is wrong because it doesn't include the full range of observed rates. B is wrong because we cannot predict an exact number from sample data. D is wrong because it arbitrarily excludes valid sample results.
Question 8
A science teacher wants to estimate the average mass of all the small rocks in a bucket (the population). She randomly selects 30 rocks and finds a sample mean mass of 42.6 grams. Then she takes another random sample of 30 rocks and finds a sample mean of 41.9 grams. Which conclusion is most reasonable?
- The two different sample means show sampling variability; the population mean is likely around 42 grams. (correct answer)
- The population mean mass must be 30 grams because 30 rocks were sampled.
- No estimate of the population mean can be made from samples.
- The population mean mass is exactly 42.6 grams, and the 41.9 grams must be an error.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, focusing on recognizing sampling variability in two sample means for rock masses. Random sample data estimates population: sample means like 42.6 grams approximate the population mean, not exactly; sample proportions would similarly estimate population proportions. Multiple samples show variability: means of 42.6 and 41.9 grams differ by 0.7 grams due to random selection, indicating uncertainty around an estimate of about 42 grams. For example, these samples suggest the population mean is likely around 42 grams, with the difference showing expected variability. The correct conclusion is that the different means show sampling variability, and the population mean is likely around 42 grams. A common error is claiming the population mean is exactly one sample's value or tying it to sample size like 30 grams. Drawing inferences involves calculating sample means and estimating the population approximately, acknowledging variability; uses include estimating characteristics without measuring all rocks, and mistakes include treating estimates as exact or assuming variability means error in sampling.
Question 9
A club advisor wants to estimate the average number of books read per student in the club during a month. Three random samples of 15 club members are taken, and the sample means are 3.2 books, 3.8 books, and 3.5 books. Which conclusion is most reasonable?
- The population mean is exactly 3.5 books because it is between the other two sample means.
- The sample means vary by about 0.6 books (from 3.2 to 3.8), so the population mean is likely around 3.5 books, but not exactly. (correct answer)
- The population mean must be 15 books because each sample had 15 students.
- Because the sample means are different, it is impossible to estimate the population mean.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, evaluating variability in three sample means for books read and its implication for the population mean. Random sample data estimates population: sample means like 3.5 books approximate the population mean, not exactly; sample proportions would similarly estimate population proportions. Multiple samples show variability: means of 3.2, 3.8, and 3.5 books vary by 0.6 books (from 3.2 to 3.8), suggesting the population mean is likely around 3.5 but not exactly. For example, these samples indicate the population mean is approximately 3.5 books, with variability showing uncertainty. The correct conclusion is that the means vary by about 0.6 books, so the population mean is likely around 3.5 but not exactly. A common error is claiming impossibility due to differences or tying the mean to sample size like 15 books. Assessing variability involves comparing sample means and using the range to estimate the population; uses include advising club activities without full data, and mistakes include expecting no variation or denying estimation from samples.
Question 10
A teacher wants to estimate the mean number of letters per word in a novel (the population is all words in the novel). A random sample of 20 words has a mean length of 4.3 letters. Two more random samples of 20 words have means of 4.6 letters and 4.1 letters. Which is the best way to describe how far off a single sample estimate might be, based on these samples?
- It cannot be off at all; all random samples should give the same mean.
- It must be off by exactly 0.3 letters because 20−4.3=15.7.
- It might be off by about ±4.3 letters.
- It might be off by about ±0.5 letters because the sample means range from 4.1 to 4.6. (correct answer)
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, assessing how far off a sample mean might be by examining variability in multiple samples of word lengths. Random sample data estimates population: a sample mean like 4.3 letters approximates the population mean, not exactly; sample proportions would similarly estimate population proportions. Multiple samples show variability: means of 4.3, 4.6, and 4.1 letters range from 4.1 to 4.6 (0.5 letters), indicating a single estimate might be off by about ±0.5 letters. For example, these samples suggest the population mean is around 4.3 letters, with variability showing potential deviation. The correct description is that it might be off by about ±0.5 letters based on the range. A common error is expecting all samples to give the same mean or miscalculating variability tied to sample size. Assessing variability involves comparing sample means and using the range to gauge uncertainty; uses include estimating text characteristics efficiently, and mistakes include denying variability or incorrect calculations.
Question 11
A teacher wants to estimate the mean number of minutes students spend reading each night. Four random samples of 30 students each were taken, and the sample means were 22 minutes, 25 minutes, 24 minutes, and 23 minutes. Which statement best describes the sampling variability and a reasonable estimate of the population mean?
- The estimates vary by about 3 minutes (22 to 25), so the population mean is likely around 23–24 minutes. (correct answer)
- The estimates should be identical; since they are different, the sampling must be wrong.
- The population mean must be exactly 25 minutes because that is the largest sample mean.
- The estimates vary by 30 minutes because each sample had 30 students, so the population mean is 30 minutes.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, estimating the mean reading time and understanding sampling variability where multiple samples vary, gauging uncertainty. Random sample data estimates the population: sample means of 22, 25, 24, 23 minutes approximate the population mean, with variability of 3 minutes indicating uncertainty around 23-24 minutes. For example, four samples with means varying by 3 minutes suggest the true population mean is likely 23-24 minutes. The best statement is that estimates vary by about 3 minutes (22 to 25), so the population mean is likely around 23-24 minutes, as in choice A. A common error is expecting identical samples or thinking variability means sampling failed. Assessing variability involves: (1) comparing sample means, (2) finding the range, (3) estimating uncertainty, (4) noting larger samples reduce variability. Uses include efficient estimation; mistakes include claiming variation invalidates sampling.
Question 12
A school wants to estimate the average number of minutes students spend on homework each night. Two different random samples are taken.
- Sample 1 (40 students): mean = 52 minutes
- Sample 2 (40 students): mean = 47 minutes
Which statement best compares these samples and what they suggest about the population mean?
- The population mean must be exactly 52 minutes because Sample 1 is larger than Sample 2.
- The population mean must be 40 minutes because 40 students were sampled.
- The estimates differ by 5 minutes, showing sampling variability; the population mean is likely somewhere around 50 minutes. (correct answer)
- Because the means are different, at least one sample is not random.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, comparing two sample means for homework time and understanding the variability's implication for the population mean. Random sample data estimates population: sample means like 52 minutes approximate the population mean, not exactly; sample proportions would similarly estimate population proportions. Multiple samples show variability: means of 52 and 47 minutes differ by 5 minutes due to random selection, suggesting the population mean is likely around 50 minutes. For example, these samples indicate the population mean is approximately 50 minutes, with the difference quantifying uncertainty. The correct statement is that the estimates differ by 5 minutes, showing variability, and the population mean is likely around 50 minutes. A common error is assuming variability means a non-random sample or claiming the mean is exactly one value. Drawing inferences involves calculating and comparing sample means to estimate the population with acknowledged variability; uses include school planning without surveying all students, and mistakes include expecting identical means or linking to sample size incorrectly.
Question 13
A student council wants to estimate the proportion of all 7th graders who prefer having a longer lunch period. They take a random sample of 60 seventh graders and 39 say they prefer a longer lunch. Which is the best estimate for the population proportion who prefer a longer lunch?
- About 6039≈35% of all 7th graders prefer a longer lunch.
- About 6039≈65% of all 7th graders prefer a longer lunch. (correct answer)
- Exactly 65% of all 7th graders prefer a longer lunch with no possible error.
- Exactly 39 seventh graders in the whole grade prefer a longer lunch.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, specifically estimating the proportion of 7th graders preferring longer lunch and understanding that sample proportions approximate population proportions with some uncertainty. Random sample data estimates population: the sample proportion of 39/60 ≈65% approximates the population proportion, not exactly but as a reasonable estimate; sample means would similarly estimate population means. Multiple samples show variability: different random samples give different estimates, like proportions varying by a few percentage points, indicating uncertainty around the estimate. For example, with 39 out of 60 preferring longer lunch, we can infer about 65% of all 7th graders prefer it, though the true value may vary slightly. The correct inference is that about 65% of all 7th graders prefer a longer lunch, recognizing it as an estimate. A common error is claiming exactly 65% with no possible error or stating exactly 39 students in the grade prefer it, ignoring that it's a proportion estimate from a sample. Drawing inferences involves calculating the sample proportion and using it to estimate the population approximately, while acknowledging uncertainty; uses include predicting student preferences without surveying everyone, and mistakes include treating estimates as exact or miscalculating the proportion.
Question 14
A cafeteria manager wants to predict which snack is more popular among all students. In a random sample of 80 students, 46 choose pretzels and the rest choose popcorn. Based on this sample, what is the best prediction about the whole school?
- Exactly 46 students in the whole school prefer pretzels.
- Popcorn is definitely more popular because the sample is not a census.
- About 8046=57.5% of students prefer pretzels, so pretzels are likely more popular than popcorn. (correct answer)
- Exactly 57.5% of the whole school prefers pretzels with no uncertainty.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, estimating the proportion preferring pretzels over popcorn and recognizing the sample proportion as an approximation. Random sample data estimates population: the sample proportion of 46/80=57.5% approximates the population proportion preferring pretzels, suggesting they are more popular, not exactly but reasonably. Multiple samples show variability: different samples would give varying proportions, indicating uncertainty in the estimate. For example, with 46 out of 80 choosing pretzels, we can predict about 57.5% of the school prefers them, likely more than popcorn, with some uncertainty. The correct prediction is that about 57.5% prefer pretzels, so they are likely more popular. A common error is claiming exactly 57.5% with no uncertainty or stating exactly 46 students in the school prefer them. Drawing inferences involves calculating the sample proportion and using it to estimate and compare population preferences; uses include predicting cafeteria popularity without asking everyone, and mistakes include ignoring uncertainty or confusing sample with census.
Question 15
A science class wants to estimate the average mass of the rocks in a large bucket. They randomly select 15 rocks and find a mean mass of 180 grams. Which conclusion is most reasonable?
- All rocks in the bucket have mass 180 grams.
- The population mean mass is 15 grams because 15 rocks were selected.
- The population mean mass of rocks in the bucket is likely close to 180 grams. (correct answer)
- No estimate can be made from a random sample.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, estimating the mean mass of rocks and understanding sampling variability where multiple samples would vary, gauging uncertainty. Random sample data estimates the population: the sample mean of 180 grams approximates the population mean, likely close but not exact. For example, a sample of 15 rocks with mean 180 grams infers the bucket's population mean is about 180 grams with some uncertainty. The most reasonable conclusion is the population mean mass is likely close to 180 grams, as in choice B. A common error is saying all rocks are exactly 180 grams or no estimate is possible. Drawing inferences involves: (1) calculating the sample mean, (2) inferring approximation, (3) acknowledging variability. Uses include efficient estimation; mistakes include exact claims or refusal to infer.
Question 16
A student council wants to estimate the proportion of all 7th graders (the population) who prefer having a longer lunch period. In a random sample of 60 7th graders, 39 said they prefer a longer lunch. Based on this sample, what is the best estimate for the population proportion who prefer a longer lunch?
- About 6039=65% of 7th graders prefer a longer lunch. (correct answer)
- Exactly 60% of 7th graders prefer a longer lunch.
- Exactly 39% of 7th graders prefer a longer lunch.
- About 6039=35% of 7th graders prefer a longer lunch.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, estimating the proportion of 7th graders preferring longer lunch and understanding sampling variability in proportions. Random sample data estimates the population: the sample proportion of 39 out of 60 (65%) approximates the population proportion, not exactly but as a reasonable estimate, much like a sample mean estimates a population mean. For example, with 39 of 60 students preferring longer lunch, the best estimate is about 65% of all 7th graders prefer it, with some uncertainty. The correct inference is that about 6039=65% of 7th graders prefer a longer lunch, as in choice A. A common error is claiming the proportion is exactly 39% or 60% without proper calculation, or treating it as certain without acknowledging estimation. To draw inferences: (1) calculate the sample proportion from the data, (2) infer the population proportion is approximately that value but not equal, (3) acknowledge uncertainty due to sampling variability. Uses include predicting school-wide preferences efficiently from a sample, while mistakes involve using incorrect fractions or refusing to estimate from a sample.
Question 17
A club advisor wants to estimate the average number of books read per student in the club during a month. Three random samples of 15 club members are taken, and the sample means are 3.2 books, 3.8 books, and 3.5 books. Which conclusion is most reasonable?
- The population mean is exactly 3.5 books because it is between the other two sample means.
- The sample means vary by about 0.6 books (from 3.2 to 3.8), so the population mean is likely around 3.5 books, but not exactly. (correct answer)
- The population mean must be 15 books because each sample had 15 students.
- Because the sample means are different, it is impossible to estimate the population mean.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, evaluating variability in three sample means for books read and its implication for the population mean. Random sample data estimates population: sample means like 3.5 books approximate the population mean, not exactly; sample proportions would similarly estimate population proportions. Multiple samples show variability: means of 3.2, 3.8, and 3.5 books vary by 0.6 books (from 3.2 to 3.8), suggesting the population mean is likely around 3.5 but not exactly. For example, these samples indicate the population mean is approximately 3.5 books, with variability showing uncertainty. The correct conclusion is that the means vary by about 0.6 books, so the population mean is likely around 3.5 but not exactly. A common error is claiming impossibility due to differences or tying the mean to sample size like 15 books. Assessing variability involves comparing sample means and using the range to estimate the population; uses include advising club activities without full data, and mistakes include expecting no variation or denying estimation from samples.
Question 18
A science teacher wants to estimate the average mass of all the small rocks in a bucket (the population). She randomly selects 30 rocks and finds a sample mean mass of 42.6 grams. Then she takes another random sample of 30 rocks and finds a sample mean of 41.9 grams. Which conclusion is most reasonable?
- The two different sample means show sampling variability; the population mean is likely around 42 grams. (correct answer)
- No estimate of the population mean can be made from samples.
- The population mean mass is exactly 42.6 grams, and the 41.9 grams must be an error.
- The population mean mass must be 30 grams because 30 rocks were sampled.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, focusing on recognizing sampling variability in two sample means for rock masses. Random sample data estimates population: sample means like 42.6 grams approximate the population mean, not exactly; sample proportions would similarly estimate population proportions. Multiple samples show variability: means of 42.6 and 41.9 grams differ by 0.7 grams due to random selection, indicating uncertainty around an estimate of about 42 grams. For example, these samples suggest the population mean is likely around 42 grams, with the difference showing expected variability. The correct conclusion is that the different means show sampling variability, and the population mean is likely around 42 grams. A common error is claiming the population mean is exactly one sample's value or tying it to sample size like 30 grams. Drawing inferences involves calculating sample means and estimating the population approximately, acknowledging variability; uses include estimating characteristics without measuring all rocks, and mistakes include treating estimates as exact or assuming variability means error in sampling.
Question 19
A principal wants to estimate the proportion of all students in the school (the population) who usually ride the bus. Two different random samples were taken.
Sample 1: 50 students, 28 ride the bus.
Sample 2: 50 students, 31 ride the bus.
Which statement best compares the two sample estimates?
- The estimates are 28% and 31%, so they differ by 3 percentage points.
- The population proportion must be exactly 62% because Sample 2 is larger.
- The estimates are 5028=56% and 5031=62%, so they differ by about 6 percentage points. (correct answer)
- Because the estimates are different, at least one sample was not random.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data and understanding sampling variability, comparing proportions from two samples of students riding the bus. Random sample data estimates the population: sample proportions of 5028 (56%) and 5031 (62%) approximate the population proportion, differing due to random selection, with variation of 6 percentage points indicating uncertainty. For example, two samples of 50 students yielding 56% and 62% show variability, suggesting the true proportion is likely around 59%. The best comparison is that the estimates are 28/50=56% and 31/50=62%, so they differ by about 6 percentage points, as in choice B. A common error is assuming different estimates mean a sample isn't random or picking the higher one as exact without acknowledging variability. Assessing variability: (1) compare multiple sample proportions, (2) find the difference (6 points), (3) estimate uncertainty with the true value likely between them, (4) larger samples reduce variability. Uses include estimating school transportation needs efficiently, while mistakes involve incorrect calculations or claiming one sample is superior based on size when they're equal.
Question 20
A school wants to predict the result of a vote on a new field trip (Yes/No). A random sample of 80 students is surveyed, and 46 say “Yes.” Which is the most reasonable prediction for the whole school (the population)?
- About 8046=57.5% of students will vote Yes, so Yes will probably get a little more than half the votes. (correct answer)
- Exactly 57.5% of students will vote Yes, with no chance of error.
- No prediction can be made because a sample is not useful.
- Exactly 46% of students will vote Yes.
Explanation: This question tests drawing inferences about a population from random sample data, estimating the proportion voting Yes on a field trip and making a prediction with uncertainty. Random sample data estimates the population: the sample proportion of 46/80 (57.5%) approximates the population proportion, suggesting Yes might get a little more than half, not exactly but reasonably. For example, 46 of 80 saying Yes predicts about 57.5% school-wide, with Yes probably over half but with some uncertainty. The most reasonable prediction is that about 46/80=57.5% of students will vote Yes, so Yes will probably get a little more than half the votes, as in choice A. A common error is claiming an exact percentage without approximation or refusing to predict from a sample. To draw inferences: (1) calculate the sample proportion, (2) infer the population proportion approximately, (3) acknowledge uncertainty. Uses include forecasting vote outcomes cost-effectively, while mistakes involve treating the estimate as certain or using wrong percentages.