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7th Grade Math Quiz

7th Grade Math Quiz: Develop Uniform Probability Models

Practice Develop Uniform Probability Models in 7th Grade Math with focused quiz questions that help you check what you know, review explanations, and build confidence with test-style prompts.

Question 1 / 20

0 of 20 answered

A bag contains 12 identical balls except for color: 3 red, 4 blue, and 5 green. If you randomly select 2 balls without replacement, what is the probability that both balls are the same color?

Select an answer to continue

What this quiz covers

This quiz focuses on Develop Uniform Probability Models, giving you a quick way to practice the rules, question types, and explanations that matter most for 7th Grade Math.

How to use this quiz

Try each quiz question before looking at the correct answer. Use the explanations to review missed ideas, then come back to similar questions until the pattern feels familiar.

All questions

Question 1

A bag contains 12 identical balls except for color: 3 red, 4 blue, and 5 green. If you randomly select 2 balls without replacement, what is the probability that both balls are the same color?

  1. 1966\frac{19}{66}6619​ (correct answer)
  2. 2366\frac{23}{66}6623​
  3. 2566\frac{25}{66}6625​
  4. 2966\frac{29}{66}6629​

Explanation: For a uniform probability model, we consider all possible pairs. Total ways to select 2 balls from 12: C(12,2) = 66. Ways to select 2 red: C(3,2) = 3. Ways to select 2 blue: C(4,2) = 6. Ways to select 2 green: C(5,2) = 10. Total favorable outcomes: 3 + 6 + 10 = 19. Probability = 19/66. Choice B incorrectly adds one extra outcome, C assumes equal colors, D includes mixed color pairs.

Question 2

A card is drawn randomly from a standard 52-card deck. Given that the card drawn is red, what is the probability that it is a heart?

  1. 1352\frac{13}{52}5213​
  2. 3952\frac{39}{52}5239​
  3. 2652\frac{26}{52}5226​
  4. 1326\frac{13}{26}2613​ (correct answer)

Explanation: This is a conditional probability problem, where you need to find the probability of one event given that another event has already occurred. The key phrase "given that the card drawn is red" tells you that you're working with a restricted sample space. In a standard deck, there are 26 red cards (13 hearts and 13 diamonds) and 26 black cards. Since you know the card is red, you're only considering those 26 red cards as your possible outcomes. Among these 26 red cards, exactly 13 are hearts. So the probability that a red card is a heart = number of heartsnumber of red cards=1326\frac{\text{number of hearts}}{\text{number of red cards}} = \frac{13}{26}number of red cardsnumber of hearts​=2613​, which is answer choice D. Let's examine why the other answers are incorrect. Choice A (1352\frac{13}{52}5213​) represents the probability of drawing a heart from the entire deck without any given information - this ignores the condition that the card is red. Choice B (3952\frac{39}{52}5239​) would represent the probability of drawing a non-heart from the entire deck, which isn't what we're looking for. Choice C (2652\frac{26}{52}5226​) gives the probability of drawing any red card from the entire deck, again ignoring the given condition. When you see "given that" in a probability question, remember to adjust your sample space. You're no longer working with all possible outcomes, but only with the outcomes that satisfy the given condition. This makes your denominator smaller and changes the probability calculation.

Question 3

A fair six-sided die is rolled three times. What is the probability that exactly two of the three rolls show the same number?

  1. 75216\frac{75}{216}21675​
  2. 120216\frac{120}{216}216120​
  3. 105216\frac{105}{216}216105​
  4. 90216\frac{90}{216}21690​ (correct answer)

Explanation: When you encounter probability questions about "exactly" a certain number of outcomes, you need to carefully count all the ways that specific condition can be met while avoiding other possibilities. To find the probability that exactly two rolls show the same number, let's think systematically. This means two dice show one number, and the third die shows a different number. First, choose which number appears twice (6 choices), then choose which two positions out of three show that number (3 ways), then choose what different number the third die shows (5 remaining choices). This gives us 6×3×5=906 \times 3 \times 5 = 906×3×5=90 favorable outcomes. The total possible outcomes when rolling three dice is 63=2166^3 = 21663=216, so our probability is 90216\frac{90}{216}21690​, which is answer D. Let's examine why the other answers are incorrect. Answer A (75216\frac{75}{216}21675​) likely comes from miscounting the arrangements or forgetting that the third die must show a different number. Answer B (120216\frac{120}{216}216120​) might result from incorrectly calculating arrangements or double-counting some cases. Answer C (105216\frac{105}{216}216105​) could come from adding cases incorrectly or not properly distinguishing between "exactly two the same" versus other similar conditions. For probability questions involving "exactly" conditions, always break the problem into clear steps: identify what you're counting, determine how many ways it can happen, calculate total possible outcomes, then form your fraction. Double-check by considering whether related cases (like all three the same, or all different) would give reasonable probabilities that add up appropriately.

Question 4

Two standard dice are rolled simultaneously. Given that their sum is greater than 9, what is the probability that at least one die shows a 6?

  1. 36\frac{3}{6}63​
  2. 46\frac{4}{6}64​
  3. 56\frac{5}{6}65​ (correct answer)
  4. 26\frac{2}{6}62​

Explanation: When you encounter a probability question with conditions like "given that" or "at least one," you're dealing with conditional probability. This means you need to narrow your focus to only the outcomes that meet the given condition. First, let's identify all the ways two dice can sum to more than 9. The possible sums are 10, 11, and 12. List the outcomes: (4,6), (5,5), (6,4) for sum = 10; (5,6), (6,5) for sum = 11; and (6,6) for sum = 12. That's 6 total outcomes where the sum exceeds 9. Now, among these 6 outcomes, count how many have at least one die showing 6: (4,6), (6,4), (5,6), (6,5), and (6,6). That's 5 outcomes with at least one 6. The probability is 56\frac{5}{6}65​, which is answer C. Let's see why the other answers are wrong. Answer A (36\frac{3}{6}63​) might come from only counting outcomes where exactly one die shows 6, forgetting to include (6,6). Answer B (46\frac{4}{6}64​) could result from excluding the (6,6) case or miscounting the favorable outcomes. Answer D (26\frac{2}{6}62​) is far too small and might come from only counting the sum = 11 cases. Study tip: For conditional probability problems, always work in two steps: first find all outcomes that satisfy the given condition, then count how many of those satisfy what you're looking for. Don't get distracted by the total number of possible dice outcomes (36) — focus only on your restricted sample space.

Question 5

A classroom raffle uses 12 identical tickets numbered 111 to 121212. One ticket is chosen at random. What is P(ticket number is a multiple of 3)P(\text{ticket number is a multiple of }3)P(ticket number is a multiple of 3)?

  1. 112\frac{1}{12}121​
  2. 39\frac{3}{9}93​
  3. 312\frac{3}{12}123​
  4. 412\frac{4}{12}124​ (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/12 to each ticket 1-12, so P(multiple of 3)={3,6,9,12} which is 4/12. A common error is missing multiples like 12 or using wrong total, leading to incomplete sample space. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (identical tickets yes), (2) count n=12, (3) assign each P=1/12, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable multiples of 3, (2) count 4, (3) divide by 12, (4) simplify to 1/3 but 4/12 is equivalent; mistakes include wrong identification or not summing to 1.

Question 6

A student randomly chooses one letter from the word MATH by writing each letter on an identical slip of paper and mixing them well. Using a uniform probability model, what is P(choosing the letter A)P(\text{choosing the letter A})P(choosing the letter A)?

  1. 13\frac{1}{3}31​
  2. 34\frac{3}{4}43​
  3. 14\frac{1}{4}41​ (correct answer)
  4. 12\frac{1}{2}21​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability: count favorable, divide by total (even on die: {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2), verify sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model for MATH has slips {M,A,T,H}, each P=1/4, P(A)=1/4. A common error is treating repeated letters as one or using word length incorrectly like 1/3. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely slips (mixed yes), (2) count n=4, (3) assign each P=1/4, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable {A}, (2) count 1, (3) divide by 4, (4) simplify to 1/4; mistakes include assuming non-uniform or wrong total.

Question 7

A bag contains 10 well-mixed marbles: 5 red, 3 blue, and 2 green. One marble is drawn at random. Using a uniform probability model (each marble is equally likely), what is P(blue)P(\text{blue})P(blue)?

  1. 13\frac{1}{3}31​
  2. 35\frac{3}{5}53​
  3. 310\frac{3}{10}103​ (correct answer)
  4. 103\frac{10}{3}310​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct model here assigns each of the 10 marbles equal probability 1/10, with 3 blue, so P(blue)=3/10. A common error is using only blue and another color, like 3/5 for blue over red, or inverting to 10/3 which exceeds 1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (each marble yes), (2) count n=10, (3) assign each P=1/10, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable blue marbles, (2) count 3, (3) divide by 10, (4) leave as 3/10; mistakes include wrong probabilities or incomplete sample space.

Question 8

A fair six-sided die is rolled once. The sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}{1,2,3,4,5,6}. Using a uniform probability model, what is P(roll an even number)P(\text{roll an even number})P(roll an even number)?

  1. 16\frac{1}{6}61​
  2. 333
  3. 12\frac{1}{2}21​ (correct answer)
  4. 26\frac{2}{6}62​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct model here identifies the even numbers as {2,4,6}, so P=3/6=1/2. A common error is miscounting favorable outcomes, like thinking only two evens, leading to 2/6, or confusing probability with counts, resulting in values like 3 or greater than 1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair die yes), (2) count n=6, (3) assign each P=1/6, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable {2,4,6}, (2) count 3, (3) divide by 6, (4) simplify to 1/2; mistakes include assuming non-uniform without justification or incorrect counting.

Question 9

A fair six-sided die is rolled once. Which set correctly lists the outcomes in the event “roll a number greater than 4”?

  1. {4,5,6}\{4,5,6\}{4,5,6}
  2. {6}\{6\}{6}
  3. {1,2,3,4}\{1,2,3,4\}{1,2,3,4}
  4. {5,6}\{5,6\}{5,6} (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct model lists the favorable outcomes for greater than 4 as {5,6}. A common error is including 4 in greater than 4, like {4,5,6}, or using less than, like {1,2,3,4}. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair die yes), (2) count n=6, (3) assign each P=1/6, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable >4 as {5,6}, (2) count 2, (3) divide by 6 for probability, but here it's listing the set; mistakes include wrong event definition or incomplete sample space.

Question 10

A fair coin is flipped twice. The sample space is {HH,HT,TH,TT}\{\text{HH},\text{HT},\text{TH},\text{TT}\}{HH,HT,TH,TT}. What is P(exactly one head)P(\text{exactly one head})P(exactly one head)?

  1. 34\frac{3}{4}43​
  2. 12\frac{1}{2}21​ (correct answer)
  3. 222
  4. 14\frac{1}{4}41​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct model has four outcomes {HH,HT,TH,TT}, each P=1/4, with exactly one head as {HT,TH}, so P=2/4=1/2. A common error is counting three for one head, leading to 3/4, or thinking only one outcome like 1/4. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair coin flips yes), (2) count n=4, (3) assign each P=1/4, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable {HT,TH}, (2) count 2, (3) divide by 4, (4) simplify to 1/2; mistakes include incomplete sample space or probabilities >1.

Question 11

A student rolls a fair six-sided die with faces {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}{1,2,3,4,5,6}. Using a uniform probability model, what is the probability of rolling a 444?

  1. 15\frac{1}{5}51​
  2. 46\frac{4}{6}64​
  3. 14\frac{1}{4}41​
  4. 16\frac{1}{6}61​ (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/6 to each face, so P(4)=1/6 since one favorable outcome out of six. A common error is miscounting outcomes or assuming non-uniform probabilities, like thinking P(4)=1/5 by excluding 4 incorrectly. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair die yes), (2) count n=6, (3) assign each P=1/6, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable {4}, (2) count 1, (3) divide by 6, (4) simplify to 1/6; mistakes include wrong total or not verifying sum to 1.

Question 12

A fair spinner has 10 equal sections numbered 111 to 101010. What is P(landing on a prime number)P(\text{landing on a prime number})P(landing on a prime number)?

  1. 510\frac{5}{10}105​
  2. 710\frac{7}{10}107​
  3. 310\frac{3}{10}103​
  4. 410\frac{4}{10}104​ (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/10 to each 1-10, so P(prime)={2,3,5,7} which is 4/10. A common error is including 1 as prime or missing 2, leading to wrong count or probability >1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair spinner yes), (2) count n=10, (3) assign each P=1/10, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable primes, (2) count 4, (3) divide by 10, (4) simplify to 2/5 but 4/10 is equivalent; mistakes include wrong prime identification or not summing to 1.

Question 13

A fair six-sided die is rolled once. What is P(rolling an even number)P(\text{rolling an even number})P(rolling an even number)?

  1. 26\frac{2}{6}62​
  2. 36\frac{3}{6}63​ (correct answer)
  3. 16\frac{1}{6}61​
  4. 46\frac{4}{6}64​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability: count favorable, divide by total (even on die: {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2), verify sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model uses {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, and P(even) is {2,4,6} so 3/6. A common error is miscounting favorable like 4/6 if including 0 or wrong evens, or probability >1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely (fair die yes), (2) count n=6, (3) assign each P=1/6, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable {2,4,6}, (2) count 3, (3) divide by 6, (4) simplify to 1/2; mistakes include wrong favorable or not summing to 1.

Question 14

A student claims: “When rolling a fair six-sided die, getting a 6 is more likely than getting a 1.” Which statement is correct under a uniform probability model?

  1. The student is correct because 6 has probability 26\frac{2}{6}62​.
  2. The student is correct because 6 is the largest number.
  3. The student is incorrect because 1 is impossible to roll.
  4. The student is incorrect because each outcome has probability 16\frac{1}{6}61​. (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct assessment is that the student is incorrect because each outcome has equal probability 1/6 in the uniform model. A common error is thinking larger numbers are more likely, or misapplying probability like claiming 6 has 2/6. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair die yes), (2) count n=6, (3) assign each P=1/6, (4) verify sum=1. To evaluate: compare claims to model; mistakes include assuming non-uniform without justification or wrong probabilities.

Question 15

A bag has 12 well-mixed tickets numbered 1 through 12. One ticket is chosen at random. What is P(choose a multiple of 3)P(\text{choose a multiple of 3})P(choose a multiple of 3)?

  1. 124\frac{12}{4}412​
  2. 412\frac{4}{12}124​ (correct answer)
  3. 112\frac{1}{12}121​
  4. 312\frac{3}{12}123​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct model identifies multiples of 3 as {3,6,9,12}, so P=4/12. A common error is miscounting multiples, like only 3, leading to 3/12, or inverting to 12/4 which is greater than 1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (tickets yes), (2) count n=12, (3) assign each P=1/12, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable multiples of 3, (2) count 4, (3) divide by 12, (4) simplify to 1/3 but option is 4/12; mistakes include wrong counting or not summing to 1.

Question 16

A fair spinner is divided into 10 equal sections numbered 1 to 10. What is the probability of landing on a number less than 4?

  1. 14\frac{1}{4}41​
  2. 310\frac{3}{10}103​ (correct answer)
  3. 710\frac{7}{10}107​
  4. 410\frac{4}{10}104​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like on a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. The correct model identifies numbers less than 4 as {1,2,3}, so P=3/10. A common error is including 4, leading to 4/10, or using greater than like 7/10. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair spinner yes), (2) count n=10, (3) assign each P=1/10, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate the event: (1) identify favorable <4, (2) count 3, (3) divide by 10, (4) leave as 3/10; mistakes include assuming non-uniform or incorrect favorable outcomes.

Question 17

A student says: “I rolled a fair die, so the probability of rolling a 6 is 15\frac{1}{5}51​ because there are 5 other numbers besides 6.” Which statement is correct?

  1. The student is correct because 5 outcomes are not 6.
  2. The student is incorrect; P(6)=6P(6)=6P(6)=6.
  3. The student is correct because each outcome has probability 15\frac{1}{5}51​.
  4. The student is incorrect; in a uniform model P(6)=16P(6)=\frac{1}{6}P(6)=61​. (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/6 to each, so student is incorrect as P(6)=1/6, not 1/5. A common error is excluding the event itself, like student's mistake of using 5 instead of 6, leading to probabilities not summing to 1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair die yes), (2) count n=6, (3) assign each P=1/6, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable {6}, (2) count 1, (3) divide by 6, (4) 1/6; mistakes include wrong total like assuming non-uniform or incorrect exclusion.

Question 18

A bag contains 10 marbles that are well-mixed: 5 red, 3 blue, and 2 green. One marble is drawn at random. Using a uniform probability model (each marble equally likely), what is P(blue)P(\text{blue})P(blue)?

  1. 35\frac{3}{5}53​
  2. 310\frac{3}{10}103​ (correct answer)
  3. 13\frac{1}{3}31​
  4. 103\frac{10}{3}310​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/10 to each marble since well-mixed, so P(blue)=3/10 with 3 favorable out of 10. A common error is using colors instead of counts, like thinking P(blue)=3/3=1, or probabilities not summing to 1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (well-mixed marbles yes), (2) count n=10, (3) assign each P=1/10, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable blue marbles, (2) count 3, (3) divide by 10, (4) simplify to 3/10; mistakes include wrong total or assuming uniform without mixing justification.

Question 19

A bag has 9 equally likely tiles: 2 are marked X, 3 are marked Y, and 4 are marked Z. One tile is drawn at random. What is P(not Z)P(\text{not }Z)P(not Z)?

  1. 19\frac{1}{9}91​
  2. 95\frac{9}{5}59​
  3. 59\frac{5}{9}95​ (correct answer)
  4. 49\frac{4}{9}94​

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n1/n1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6P=1/6P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/nP=1/nP=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2P=3/6=1/2P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6P=1/6P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2P(\text{even})=3/6=1/2P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/9P=1/9P=1/9 to each tile, so P(not Z)=(2X+3Y)/9=5/9P(\text{not Z})=(2X+3Y)/9=5/9P(not Z)=(2X+3Y)/9=5/9. A common error is treating marks as equal groups instead of counts, like assuming three equal probabilities summing >1. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (equally likely tiles yes), (2) count n=9, (3) assign each P=1/9P=1/9P=1/9, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable not Z {X,Y}, (2) count 5, (3) divide by 9, (4) 5/9; mistakes include wrong favorable or assuming uniform without count justification.

Question 20

A fair coin is flipped once. The sample space is {H,T}\{\text{H},\text{T}\}{H,T}. What is P(T)P(\text{T})P(T)?

  1. 222
  2. 13\frac{1}{3}31​
  3. 111
  4. 12\frac{1}{2}21​ (correct answer)

Explanation: This question tests developing a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability 1/n to each of n equally likely outcomes, calculating event probabilities as favorable/total. In a uniform model, outcomes are equally likely, like a fair die where each number has P=1/6; assign equal probability P=1/n to each, event probability is count of favorable divided by total, such as even on die {2,4,6} count 3, total 6, P=3/6=1/2, and verify probabilities sum to 1. For example, fair die {1,2,3,4,5,6}, each P=1/6, event 'even'={2,4,6}, P(even)=3/6=1/2. Here, the correct model assigns P=1/2 to each H and T, so P(T)=1/2 with one favorable out of two. A common error is thinking probability is 1 for certain or using wrong sample space like including other outcomes. To create the model: (1) identify equally likely outcomes (fair coin yes), (2) count n=2, (3) assign each P=1/2, (4) verify sum=1. To calculate: (1) identify favorable {T}, (2) count 1, (3) divide by 2, (4) simplify to 1/2; mistakes include not summing to 1 or wrong probabilities.