Statistics Graduate Level Quiz
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BAYESIAN STATISTICS
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Two competing models, M1 and M2, have equal prior probabilities. The observed data produce a Bayes factor of 3 in favor of M1 over M2. Conditional on the data and the corresponding model, the predictive probabilities of a future event A are 0.20 under M1 and 0.80 under M2.
What is the model-averaged posterior predictive probability of event A?
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