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An economist argues for a policy of "countercyclical credentialing" in workforce development. The economist claims that during economic downturns, workers have more time to train but fewer resources to pay for training; during booms, they have more resources but less time. Therefore, the economist proposes expanding subsidized training programs during downturns and contracting them during booms, so that public spending aligns with when training is most feasible.
The economist then argues that training programs should focus on "portable skills" rather than firm-specific skills. Portable skills, the economist says, protect workers from future shocks by allowing them to move across employers. The economist acknowledges that firms may prefer firm-specific training, but contends public subsidies should not underwrite private benefits that cannot be widely shared.
Next, the economist addresses the concern that subsidized training may not lead to employment. The economist argues that training should be tied to labor-market signals, such as job postings, to avoid producing credentials with little demand. However, the economist also claims job postings can be misleading during downturns, because firms may post openings without intending to hire immediately. To handle this, the economist proposes using multi-year trends rather than current postings alone.
Finally, the economist claims countercyclical credentialing stabilizes the economy by maintaining workers' employability, reducing the duration of unemployment spells, and supporting consumer demand. The economist concludes that the policy is both equitable and efficient because it helps those most harmed by downturns while improving long-run productivity.
Which statement, if true, would most weaken the internal consistency of the economist's argument?
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