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Probability Models

A probability model is a mathematical representation of a chance occurrence.

A model consists of a sample space, the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, and a set of probabilities assigned to each element of the sample space . These probabilities may or may not be known.


A certain model of car is sold in four factory colors: puke green, dreamy blue, and black metal. There is also the option of automatic or manual transmission.

There are six possible outcomes in the sample space:

Puke green – automatic

Dreamy blue – automatic

Black metal – automatic

Puke green – manual

Dreamy blue – manual

Black metal – manual

Some elements in the sample space may have higher probabilities than others. For instance, a customer may be more likely to choose a dreamy blue car with automatic transmission than a puke green car with manual transmission.